中国語の「没有」を日本語に直訳すれば「ありません」という意味である。しかし、中国ではかならずしもその意味として使われていないようです。
約20年前に、北京等の中国の大都市で夕食を取ろうとしていた時に、多くのレストランでメニューの８割、特に美味しそうなものについて「没有」とばかり言われていた。当時は計画経済だからモノ不足だと思いこんでいた。しかし、実態はそうではなく、レストランの従業員は早めに店を閉めたく、客の注文通りに営業をしたら帰宅も遅くなり、それを避けるために「没有」という台詞で対応したのである。今日、日本よりも市場経済システムが浸透している中国では「没有」という精神は未だ残っている。
先日、２年ぶりに上海を訪れた機会に、東京の紀伊国屋とか丸善とか相当する「書城」という書店で、中国の「気功」を解説する本を購入しようと思い、案内カウンターの店員に尋ねたら、「没有」と言われました。そうか、「書城」にはこういう類の書籍を取り扱っていないのだと納得して諦めざるを得ませんでした。しかし、案内カウンターからちょっと離れた本棚に「太極拳」とか「少林拳法」とかの本が並んでいるのを見かけ、確認したところ、「気功」類の本が何冊もあった。解説が分かりやすいものを１冊購入した。
今回の経験を通じて分かったのは、この「書城」では「気功」の本が「没有」ではなく、案内係りの店員が「いま、こちらが同僚と喋っているから、邪魔だ」の言う代わりに「没有」という表現を用い、客を追い払ったことである。
Friday, January 15, 2010
Tuesday, September 01, 2009
税金の無駄使いの例
近年首都圏への相互乗り入れる地下鉄や私鉄の運行数が増加している。8月27日読売新聞の夕刊によれば、東京近郊の相互乗り入れ路線の総延長は90年現在の535キロであったのに対し、08年現在は922キロとなり、1.7倍増となった。２３区に在住されている人々は、通勤時間台に頻発している乗り入れの電車の遅れによって迷惑を蒙っているに違いない。筆者も頻繁に影響を受けている。
鉄道相互乗り入れは通勤・通学圏が拡大される一方、利便さが増しているのは紛れない事実である。しかし、首都圏に住んでいる人々にとっては相互乗り入れによって頻繁に電車が遅れたり、それによってダイヤが乱れたりして迷惑であると思う利用者が決して少ない。経済学はこういう状況を「外部性」という。標準的な教科書は「外部性」が生じた場合にそれを正すために政府の介入が欠かせないと教える。
こうした標準的な経済学の教えをもとに、国土交通省は、東京近郊から首都圏への鉄道乗り入れに伴う電車の遅れ対策の一つとして、地下鉄の「引き込み線」に関する調査や情報提供などへソフト面の支援を行うための費用を2010年度予算の概算請求に計上したのである（8月27日読売新聞の夕刊）。さらに、国土交通省はそれらの可能性を調べたうえ、具体的な対応をするかどうかという決定を各鉄道会社に委ね、政府の対応はあくまでも鉄道会社の投資を促す方針であると強調している。
国土交通省の主張は予想される結果であるならば、最初からそうした調査を行わないで、別の方策を検討した方が国民の税金を無駄にならないと指摘したい。お役人は如何に自らの管轄において予算を多く取るかを考え、そのために経済学などの諸理論を用いて「科学的」に正当性を確保することが常である。その結果、無駄使いが増大し、そのツケを国民に回すこととなる。いつまでも国民の血税で財政赤字を埋めることになる。今回の国土交通省が取り組もうとする対策は典型的な税金の無駄使いである。
時差通勤による混雑緩和が一つの対応である。但し、これまでの時差通勤を利用者の自発な行動に委ねるというやり方ではなく、通勤時間にしたがって運賃の差別化（例えば、朝７～９時、夕方５～７時の間に運賃の5割増し）を図ると同時に、ラッシュ時の電車運転間隔を最低間隔5分間に規制し、それによって相互乗り入れの遅れを解消するというアプローチを取る。そうすれば、利用者の便益をマイナス外部性による社会コストと同じくすることによって問題が解決される。
鉄道相互乗り入れは通勤・通学圏が拡大される一方、利便さが増しているのは紛れない事実である。しかし、首都圏に住んでいる人々にとっては相互乗り入れによって頻繁に電車が遅れたり、それによってダイヤが乱れたりして迷惑であると思う利用者が決して少ない。経済学はこういう状況を「外部性」という。標準的な教科書は「外部性」が生じた場合にそれを正すために政府の介入が欠かせないと教える。
こうした標準的な経済学の教えをもとに、国土交通省は、東京近郊から首都圏への鉄道乗り入れに伴う電車の遅れ対策の一つとして、地下鉄の「引き込み線」に関する調査や情報提供などへソフト面の支援を行うための費用を2010年度予算の概算請求に計上したのである（8月27日読売新聞の夕刊）。さらに、国土交通省はそれらの可能性を調べたうえ、具体的な対応をするかどうかという決定を各鉄道会社に委ね、政府の対応はあくまでも鉄道会社の投資を促す方針であると強調している。
国土交通省の主張は予想される結果であるならば、最初からそうした調査を行わないで、別の方策を検討した方が国民の税金を無駄にならないと指摘したい。お役人は如何に自らの管轄において予算を多く取るかを考え、そのために経済学などの諸理論を用いて「科学的」に正当性を確保することが常である。その結果、無駄使いが増大し、そのツケを国民に回すこととなる。いつまでも国民の血税で財政赤字を埋めることになる。今回の国土交通省が取り組もうとする対策は典型的な税金の無駄使いである。
時差通勤による混雑緩和が一つの対応である。但し、これまでの時差通勤を利用者の自発な行動に委ねるというやり方ではなく、通勤時間にしたがって運賃の差別化（例えば、朝７～９時、夕方５～７時の間に運賃の5割増し）を図ると同時に、ラッシュ時の電車運転間隔を最低間隔5分間に規制し、それによって相互乗り入れの遅れを解消するというアプローチを取る。そうすれば、利用者の便益をマイナス外部性による社会コストと同じくすることによって問題が解決される。
Friday, August 28, 2009
プノンペンにおけるパレート法則の再現
パレート法則とは、イタリアの経済学者ヴィルフレド・パレートが社会現象を観察して発見した「80：20」という法則である。つまり、この法則によれば世の中において80％の結果は20％の原因によってもたらされている。ある社会または国を例にすると、パレート法則は20％の人口が80％の富を支配すると説明する。
実際に、世銀のデータベースから2004年現在一人あたり国民所得（米ドルで購買力平価、PPP）の統計を使ってジニ係数の計算とローレンツ曲線を描いてみると、前者は0.793であり、後者は10％の人口が9割の世界所得を支配しているという極めて不平等な事実を確認することができる。パレート法則は厳密に「80：20」の比例であることを意味するのではなく、「90：10」という比率もありうることを注意すべきである。
8月中旬にプノンペンを訪れ、知り合いの事務所から眺められる写真は実にカンボジアのある銀行家の豪邸であるとのこと。2007年現在同国の一人当たりGDPは約600ドルであり、単純に考えれば、約1,400万人の国民は1日2ドル以下で生活しているという状況にあるにもかかわらず、一人の銀行家の豪邸はなんと何処かの国の首相官邸の豪大さであると感じる。カンボジアはここ数年10％位の実質GDP成長率を遂げ、その配当は一般市民に行き渡るよりも、パレート法則が予測している通り、富は1割か2割の人々に支配されているとこの写真が物語っている。
実際に、世銀のデータベースから2004年現在一人あたり国民所得（米ドルで購買力平価、PPP）の統計を使ってジニ係数の計算とローレンツ曲線を描いてみると、前者は0.793であり、後者は10％の人口が9割の世界所得を支配しているという極めて不平等な事実を確認することができる。パレート法則は厳密に「80：20」の比例であることを意味するのではなく、「90：10」という比率もありうることを注意すべきである。
8月中旬にプノンペンを訪れ、知り合いの事務所から眺められる写真は実にカンボジアのある銀行家の豪邸であるとのこと。2007年現在同国の一人当たりGDPは約600ドルであり、単純に考えれば、約1,400万人の国民は1日2ドル以下で生活しているという状況にあるにもかかわらず、一人の銀行家の豪邸はなんと何処かの国の首相官邸の豪大さであると感じる。カンボジアはここ数年10％位の実質GDP成長率を遂げ、その配当は一般市民に行き渡るよりも、パレート法則が予測している通り、富は1割か2割の人々に支配されているとこの写真が物語っている。
Wednesday, August 26, 2009
卒業生との飲み会
8月7日に久しぶりに2006年の春に卒業したゼミ生の一部と暑気払いの飲み会をした。当期のゼミ生は10名だったと記憶しており、全員がそれぞれの職場で活躍されている模様である。何よりだ。今回の集まりはあいにく４名の参加であった。
写真の左奥の人物はいまや車いすテニスの世界ランキング１位の国枝慎吾氏である。今年の春からプロテニスプレヤーに転身し、国際試合で各地に飛び回り、大事なスポンサー獲得、そして車いすテニス等の啓蒙活動とかで忙しい日々を送っているようである。8月26日の日経新聞によれば、国枝氏はユニクロ社と所属契約を結んだという。ますますのご発展とご健闘を期待する。
写真の左奥の人物はいまや車いすテニスの世界ランキング１位の国枝慎吾氏である。今年の春からプロテニスプレヤーに転身し、国際試合で各地に飛び回り、大事なスポンサー獲得、そして車いすテニス等の啓蒙活動とかで忙しい日々を送っているようである。8月26日の日経新聞によれば、国枝氏はユニクロ社と所属契約を結んだという。ますますのご発展とご健闘を期待する。
Friday, July 17, 2009
"Rethinking Growth Policies in the Developing World:" Comments 8
By
Introduction
The article seeks to answer the question “what should developing countries do to increase their growth rates and speed up the rates at which their citizens converge to the level of material well-being obtained in today’s advanced nations?”
It discusses the Washington Consensus as an instrument, which Washington including the International Monetary Fund, among others, urged developing countries to adopt during the 1980’s as against the heterodox policies most developing Asian countries implemented. Further, it continues to show that the Washington Consensus may still be applied in developing policies if certain adjustments as explained through its augmented version are also achieved.
In the end, the author recognizes that there is no “one-size fits all” solution to economic development and thus presents a diagnostic approach to growth strategies wherein main bottlenecks to development are isolated and analyzed to determine strategic solutions. This methodology allows a government to address its weak points while giving it enough flexibility to address the latter strategically and within its capacities.
Comments
The three main ideas around the Washington Consensus are macroeconomic discipline, a market economy, and openness to the world.[i] These concepts are probably derived from the neoclassical economic point of view. On the other hand, heterodox policies, adopted in most Asian countries, took on a more developmental strategy wherein their individual governments had more control over implementation of strategies.
Based on the Latin American cases, which adopted the Washington Consensus as an ideology and their failures vis-à-vis the apparent gains of the Asian countries that have “marched to their own drum,” it can be concluded that a single formula to development is not a solution to achieving development.
Boxing up such policies and assuming they could induce growth in all developing countries is therefore not a wise presumption. Factors such as political, social, cultural, as well as investor confidence, growth drivers, etc. of each country greatly affect development. Thus adoption of a certain policy that may have been effective for one country may not have the same results in another.
Saying that “no one size fits all” is a cliché. However, there is also an obvious truth to it. Strategies should be tailor fit to the implementers’ capacities as well as the society’s ability to adhere to the policies.
The recommended diagnostic approach would indeed allow developing countries determine strategies applicable to them. However, a vital step is not discussed in this strategy. This step refers to the determination of the main bottleneck. Many developing countries are faced with multiple impediments to growth. And for them to break out from this level, they have to address all of these within the limits of their financial, technical and physical capacities. As such, a prioritization process should be included as well.
Significance to the Philippine Case
The
Stabilization
1) Government spending was reduced, as the focus was to balance the budget and pay for outstanding foreign debt this resulted in poor allocation of investments. As opposed to neighboring Asian countries where the government has been actively participating and investing in capital development, the Philippine government has not kept at pace in such investments.
Liberalization
1) From import substitution to export oriented – While foreign direct investments increased and improvements in some sectors such as the electronics industry, they overall process did not deliver the expected benefits to the manufacturing sector. This failure led to high unemployment rates as the manufacturing sector could not absorb the continuously growing labor market. As a result, employment generally shifted to the services sector. Productivity in the manufacturing sector thus remained low.
2) Agriculture – Unlike
Privatization
1) Privatization has been pursued since the political crisis of 1986. Since then the government has engaged in various privatization efforts, including the power, water supply and transportation sectors. However, initial attempts to privatize were maligned with various cases of corruption. At the same time, the government itself was not adapt to private sector mind sets thus would create misunderstandings during contract negotiations. This lack of capacity also resulted in unfair contractual obligations for the government, as in the case of the Metro Rail Transit Line 3 Project, giving the general public a negative perception of public-private partnerships. Despite this, the government continued its privatization policy in transportation, watery supply, power, and communications. Metro
Conclusion
The Washington Consensus, in my opinion, is a generalization based on the western values and experience in development hinged on their belief in democracy. Furthermore it can be related to the neoclassical economic thinking wherein markets are left to develop on their own, thus promotes liberalization and privatization.
However, what the economists then forgot to consider is the value set of other developing countries, especially that of
Furthermore, in light of the already globalized nature of trade, absolute liberalization may not be recommended as internal/local industries may not be able to catch up with the already competitive market thus instead of expanding could eventually die out as what happened in the Philippine case. It was therefore wise of both
As for the Philippine case, adopting the Washington Consensus had both positive and negative effects, albeit, in my opinion, more negative. By trying to stabilize the economy, the government was not able to utilize its capital to spur investments and, thus failed stimulate the economy especially during crises.
Liberalization, on the other hand, led to the
Among the three recommendations, only privatization has thus far offered development in the sectors of transportation, water supply, telecommunications and power, if you do not consider the amount of “corruption” that came along with it.
At this point, the
References:
1. The
2. Did the Washington Consensus Fail?, John Williamson, Peterson Institute for International Economics; Outline of speech at the Center for Strategic & International Studies; Washington, DC; 06 November 2002.
3. “External Liberalization, Growth and Distribution in the Philippines;” Joseph Y. Lim and Carlos C. Bautista; A paper for the international conference on “External Liberalization, Growth, Development and Social Policy;” Hanoi, Vietnam; 18 to 20 January 2002.
4. In the Shadow of Debt: The Sad but True Tale behind a Quarter Century of Stagnation; Walden Bello.
5. An Assessment of the Philippine Economy; Germelino M. Bautista; 2003.
6. Chapter 15: Privatization in the Philippines; Lauro A. Ortile; Challenges and Opportunities in Energy.
[i] Did the Washington Consensus Fail?; John Williamson, Peterson Institute for International Economics; Outline of speech at the Center for Strategic & International Studies;
"Rethinking Growth Policies in the Developing World:" Comments 7
By Shah Mohammad Mahboob (
Introduction
The article by Dani Rodrik has tried to focus upon the weaknesses of “one for all” reform strategies of the IFIs and the arguments can fairly be supported by a range of data. But, the developing countries “poor ability to decide and choose” can also be a major factor for the failure of reforms.
Historically,
During the 1990s,
During 2000 onwards,
Even though IFIs were partly wrong in their drafting one unique plan for all countries, it was also the developing country’s primary responsibility to check the adaptability of the reforms to their situation and control the degree of implementation. If the countries cannot develop their own decision making ability, the ‘removing the bottleneck’ procedure, as was suggested by the author may as well be unsuccessful for them. They really have to learn to choose the best for them from a complex mesh of options.
Wednesday, July 15, 2009
"Rethinking Growth Policies in the Developing World:" Comments 6
By Farrah Shameen binti Mohamad Ashray (Malaysia)
I. Commentary
The rate of development of each country definitely lies in the growth policies adopted. How these policies are adopted and what are the reasons behind choosing each policy has a lot to do with the interest and aim of the nation as well as the regional trends. Although nations rely on each other because of trade activities, but they are not permanent friends as nations have different interests and aims which sometimes are conflicting.
The obsession to have super rapid growth has been the trend in developing countries. Gradualism is not it. At the same time, economic super powers through international organizations led by them are also propagating globalization, free-market and deregulation, indicating to the developing countries, since having a reliance on the foreign investment and capital, must govern and mold their countries in the desirable manner of the investors.
The question is who determines the best growth policy now? Who determines what is orthodox and what is heterodox? Are the growth policies propagated by the international communities, which are usually the already developed nations the best recipe for the developing nations? In my opinion, these are the issues brought forward by the author, Dani Rodrik. After discussing the basic principles of economic policies that all successful nations adhered to such as sound monetary policy, integration with the world economy, protection of intellectual property, social and political stability amongst others, he has highlighted that there are instances in certain countries which are not so. There are countries that have succeeded to attract investors and achieve considerable healthy economic growth without adhering to these set of principles such as China and Vietnam. The reluctant reformers and pro-socialist countries have also achieved growth which also proved that economic growth does not necessarily have to be in a democratic environment. He thereby concluded that the consensus on these principles through the Original Washington Consensus (OWC), and which was later enhanced in the Augmented Washington Consensus (AWC) are not necessarily the best medicine for all. The weaknesses highlighted by the author in the AWC such as being too ambitious to be achieved, not realistic enough compared to the institutional and human resource capacity in developing countries, are real and eminent in my point of view.
Then a realization that there is a need to avoid one-size –fits-all strategies and put focus on country-specific strategies. It is also admitted that the World Bank and other International Financial Institutions (IFI) recognize these issues but have yet to be confronted it seriously and are still positively proceeding with the current programs. Finding out why it has not been addressed seriously by these institutions would be interesting.
The Diagnostic Approach which is favored by the author is to match policy priorities with the diagnostic signals. It is a strategy to first figure out the bottleneck or the constraint of growth and then finding out what are the causes/roots of the particular constraint and connects it to the problem. At the same time, decide what the most needed thing/action to take is. It would also be easier to rule list out the strength in the beginning so that it could be used rather than reinventing the wheel or to avoid creating growth policies which do not take advantage of strong aspects/characteristics of a situation or nation. This approach shows that individualism and specifics are important in creating the skill to identify problems objectively and the skill in solving problems without relying fully on packaged remedies like the Washington Consensus.
II. The Case of Malaysia : The Industrial Policy
What kind of growth policies have Malaysia adopted to achieve growth over the years? How did Malaysia choose its growth policies and what are the reasons behind it. I would like to focus only during the early days of Malaysia, when huge transformations/policies of high impact to achieve several aims were made, which is the Industrial Policy.
Malaysia, in my opinion started from an agrarian state with an economy depending at about 25% share of agriculture in its GDP in 1960s but moved to set it priorities to become an industrialized state because of the constant identification of economic progress with industrialization, looking at the Industrial Revolution in the 18th century. This is probably the only economic revolution to date for the Third World countries to imitate and which could give a spill effect so large that it could be a fast track growth policy. It was probably the only way for Malaysia which was not satisfied with status quo and wanted a leap frog in economic growth. This strong orientation to be industrialized could also be seen when the 4th Prime Minister, Mahathir Mohamad announced in 1982 that Malaysia wanted to learn from the industrialized eastern countries, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan, a policy later called the Look East Policy, instead of from the western bloc. The other reason was Japan as the second largest trading partner to Malaysia at that time has emerged as the second largest economy in the world. Industrialization was also to diversify the economy because focused economy especially on agriculture, minerals and commodities is believed to be dangerous for the economic stability in the future.
Malaysia even before independence in 1957 has already traded actively mostly by exporting commodities, supplying raw materials for manufacturing industry of Britain and becoming the market for those manufactured goods. After the Investment Incentives Act was passed in 1968 in the midst of high unemployment and social instability, the law boosted private investment, local and foreign as well as export oriented industry by providing various incentives, exemptions on tax and tariff protection . It also provided labour intensive industries tax relief based on number of employees. At this time, government regulations played an important role in the pattern of employment as well as the growth of the industries. Export oriented industries mushroom so rapidly that in the early 1980s, that some industry like the construction and plantations were having shortage of man power as many have turned to factories and industries for employment. Government of Malaysia launched the Industrial Master Plan (IMP) in 1986 to lay the foundation for the manufacturing sector to be leading growth sector in the economy. At this point of time, the unemployment rate was doing downhill; the world recession starting in 1983 causing commodities prices to fall had resulted in massive retrenchment in many industries especially invested by foreign capital. To date, Malaysia has three IMPs namely the first: IMP1 (1986-1995), second IMP2 (1996-2005), and third, IMP3 (2006-2020).
Why was Industrialization chosen to boost economic growth even now? In reference to the Washington Consensus, it can be seen that the Malaysian Government did follow the rules of good behaviour such as openness to direct foreign investment, deregulation, tax reform, integration with world economy etc. The difference between Malaysia and some other countries like the Indonesia and Philippines is that Malaysia still has it freedom from the IMF and World Bank to make policies and regulations. Thus probably the pressure to follow these principles did not come out of obligation to these IFIs but came out of careful policy considerations and of the need to resolve the issues of financial weaknesses and inefficient banking system as well as to insulate the country from rapid capital flight. In other words, wanting to prove that Malaysia has strong and sound corporate governance. However, how did Malaysia come to that conclusion that industrialization is the best? Although it can be seen that Malaysia tried to mimic the success of the Industrial Revolution, there are many country specific characteristics which were adopted to tailor make the policy into the domestic environment. In the beginning of industrialization also, it can be seen that gradualism and government control was practiced very strictly. Gradualism was practiced in the beginning as the Government was cautious of losing control and being taken advantage of by investors whom are far more experienced. Some regulations made by the government because of national interests and economic distribution motives in mind have been largely criticized. Lastly, the industrial policy adaptation has a futuristic dimension that is to prepare the country to be competitive in the world and not only to address problems at the particular time.
3. Conclusion
In the case of Malaysia, all the first-order principles of economic policy are in existence. Malaysia wanted to grow very fast and needed to grow fast. For that the government has chosen industrialization as the key sector of economic growth through encouraging spill effects of industrialization which are:
To my opinion, it is seen like Malaysia did diagnose the bottlenecks and constraints in the growth of the economy before bravely pointing to industrialization as the key to economic growth, using the growth it generates to cover many bases at one time. The issue of misdiagnosed might be argued by some saying that the IMP has failed in many ways, but the Industrialization as a whole is a success although a handful business projects under its flagship such as HICOM and Perwaja Steel has failed to sustained due to many contested reasons.
I. Commentary
The rate of development of each country definitely lies in the growth policies adopted. How these policies are adopted and what are the reasons behind choosing each policy has a lot to do with the interest and aim of the nation as well as the regional trends. Although nations rely on each other because of trade activities, but they are not permanent friends as nations have different interests and aims which sometimes are conflicting.
The obsession to have super rapid growth has been the trend in developing countries. Gradualism is not it. At the same time, economic super powers through international organizations led by them are also propagating globalization, free-market and deregulation, indicating to the developing countries, since having a reliance on the foreign investment and capital, must govern and mold their countries in the desirable manner of the investors.
The question is who determines the best growth policy now? Who determines what is orthodox and what is heterodox? Are the growth policies propagated by the international communities, which are usually the already developed nations the best recipe for the developing nations? In my opinion, these are the issues brought forward by the author, Dani Rodrik. After discussing the basic principles of economic policies that all successful nations adhered to such as sound monetary policy, integration with the world economy, protection of intellectual property, social and political stability amongst others, he has highlighted that there are instances in certain countries which are not so. There are countries that have succeeded to attract investors and achieve considerable healthy economic growth without adhering to these set of principles such as China and Vietnam. The reluctant reformers and pro-socialist countries have also achieved growth which also proved that economic growth does not necessarily have to be in a democratic environment. He thereby concluded that the consensus on these principles through the Original Washington Consensus (OWC), and which was later enhanced in the Augmented Washington Consensus (AWC) are not necessarily the best medicine for all. The weaknesses highlighted by the author in the AWC such as being too ambitious to be achieved, not realistic enough compared to the institutional and human resource capacity in developing countries, are real and eminent in my point of view.
Then a realization that there is a need to avoid one-size –fits-all strategies and put focus on country-specific strategies. It is also admitted that the World Bank and other International Financial Institutions (IFI) recognize these issues but have yet to be confronted it seriously and are still positively proceeding with the current programs. Finding out why it has not been addressed seriously by these institutions would be interesting.
The Diagnostic Approach which is favored by the author is to match policy priorities with the diagnostic signals. It is a strategy to first figure out the bottleneck or the constraint of growth and then finding out what are the causes/roots of the particular constraint and connects it to the problem. At the same time, decide what the most needed thing/action to take is. It would also be easier to rule list out the strength in the beginning so that it could be used rather than reinventing the wheel or to avoid creating growth policies which do not take advantage of strong aspects/characteristics of a situation or nation. This approach shows that individualism and specifics are important in creating the skill to identify problems objectively and the skill in solving problems without relying fully on packaged remedies like the Washington Consensus.
II. The Case of Malaysia : The Industrial Policy
What kind of growth policies have Malaysia adopted to achieve growth over the years? How did Malaysia choose its growth policies and what are the reasons behind it. I would like to focus only during the early days of Malaysia, when huge transformations/policies of high impact to achieve several aims were made, which is the Industrial Policy.
Malaysia, in my opinion started from an agrarian state with an economy depending at about 25% share of agriculture in its GDP in 1960s but moved to set it priorities to become an industrialized state because of the constant identification of economic progress with industrialization, looking at the Industrial Revolution in the 18th century. This is probably the only economic revolution to date for the Third World countries to imitate and which could give a spill effect so large that it could be a fast track growth policy. It was probably the only way for Malaysia which was not satisfied with status quo and wanted a leap frog in economic growth. This strong orientation to be industrialized could also be seen when the 4th Prime Minister, Mahathir Mohamad announced in 1982 that Malaysia wanted to learn from the industrialized eastern countries, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan, a policy later called the Look East Policy, instead of from the western bloc. The other reason was Japan as the second largest trading partner to Malaysia at that time has emerged as the second largest economy in the world. Industrialization was also to diversify the economy because focused economy especially on agriculture, minerals and commodities is believed to be dangerous for the economic stability in the future.
Malaysia even before independence in 1957 has already traded actively mostly by exporting commodities, supplying raw materials for manufacturing industry of Britain and becoming the market for those manufactured goods. After the Investment Incentives Act was passed in 1968 in the midst of high unemployment and social instability, the law boosted private investment, local and foreign as well as export oriented industry by providing various incentives, exemptions on tax and tariff protection . It also provided labour intensive industries tax relief based on number of employees. At this time, government regulations played an important role in the pattern of employment as well as the growth of the industries. Export oriented industries mushroom so rapidly that in the early 1980s, that some industry like the construction and plantations were having shortage of man power as many have turned to factories and industries for employment. Government of Malaysia launched the Industrial Master Plan (IMP) in 1986 to lay the foundation for the manufacturing sector to be leading growth sector in the economy. At this point of time, the unemployment rate was doing downhill; the world recession starting in 1983 causing commodities prices to fall had resulted in massive retrenchment in many industries especially invested by foreign capital. To date, Malaysia has three IMPs namely the first: IMP1 (1986-1995), second IMP2 (1996-2005), and third, IMP3 (2006-2020).
Why was Industrialization chosen to boost economic growth even now? In reference to the Washington Consensus, it can be seen that the Malaysian Government did follow the rules of good behaviour such as openness to direct foreign investment, deregulation, tax reform, integration with world economy etc. The difference between Malaysia and some other countries like the Indonesia and Philippines is that Malaysia still has it freedom from the IMF and World Bank to make policies and regulations. Thus probably the pressure to follow these principles did not come out of obligation to these IFIs but came out of careful policy considerations and of the need to resolve the issues of financial weaknesses and inefficient banking system as well as to insulate the country from rapid capital flight. In other words, wanting to prove that Malaysia has strong and sound corporate governance. However, how did Malaysia come to that conclusion that industrialization is the best? Although it can be seen that Malaysia tried to mimic the success of the Industrial Revolution, there are many country specific characteristics which were adopted to tailor make the policy into the domestic environment. In the beginning of industrialization also, it can be seen that gradualism and government control was practiced very strictly. Gradualism was practiced in the beginning as the Government was cautious of losing control and being taken advantage of by investors whom are far more experienced. Some regulations made by the government because of national interests and economic distribution motives in mind have been largely criticized. Lastly, the industrial policy adaptation has a futuristic dimension that is to prepare the country to be competitive in the world and not only to address problems at the particular time.
3. Conclusion
In the case of Malaysia, all the first-order principles of economic policy are in existence. Malaysia wanted to grow very fast and needed to grow fast. For that the government has chosen industrialization as the key sector of economic growth through encouraging spill effects of industrialization which are:
- Urbanization and migration;
- the development of small and medium industries and enterprises (creating supply linkages);
- increase of job opportunities through encouragement of labour intensive industries ( which leads into increase of income per capita);
- Encouraging Science and Technology in education and job/skill training (creating a good/quality pool of labour);
- Poverty eradication and income distribution (increase quality of life);
- Foreign investment and capital increases and etc.
To my opinion, it is seen like Malaysia did diagnose the bottlenecks and constraints in the growth of the economy before bravely pointing to industrialization as the key to economic growth, using the growth it generates to cover many bases at one time. The issue of misdiagnosed might be argued by some saying that the IMP has failed in many ways, but the Industrialization as a whole is a success although a handful business projects under its flagship such as HICOM and Perwaja Steel has failed to sustained due to many contested reasons.
"Rethinking Growth Policies in the Developing World:" Comments 5
By Paul J Amani (Tanzania)
1.0 Introduction
For decades, many poor countries of the world including Tanzania implemented a series of development reform policies mostly conditioned by International Financial Institutions (IMF and WB), with the aim of achieving economic growth and alleviate poverty. The emphasis of these policies changed over time depending on what economists believed to be the best course of action for the country(s) to achieve high and sustainable economic growth. Notwithstanding of all the efforts, Sub-Sahara African countries (including Tanzania) remains the poorest in the world. This paper therefore, discusses the impact of the growth policies by citing Tanzania’s experience. A major reference is made on Dan Roderick’s lecture at Havard University- “Rethinking Growth Policies in the Developing World”, 2004.
2.0 Summary of Rordick’s Lecture
In my understanding, I think the author is concerned with ongoing poor economic situation among poor countries particularly those in Sub-Saharan Africa despite decades of tying reforms policies in the pursuit of social, economic and political development. Without doubt, the founding pillar of these policies is the orthodox development thinking and theories; “stabilize, liberalize and privatize” of the advanced countries proposed as a cure for the economic destitution of the poor countries. Of all reforms trade liberalization has been pointed as the most striking policy as it required the developing countries to “eliminate restrictions on imported goods and services”. Despite the fact that many countries adopted the policies, only few succeeded. China, Vietnam and India for example, become successful through unorthodox means-by grafting market system on top of a planned system, underplayed private property rights, and opened trade to the world- in a highly protected trade regime with favors on special economic zones. He insists the importance of countries to protect their macro-economic activities, cautiously integrate into world trade, ensure effective property rights and maintain social cohesion, solidarity and political stability.
3.0 Tanzanias economic reform policy experience:
Soon after attained its independence in 1961, Tanzania nullified the role of market in the economy and backed socialistic political system with the state controlling everything. Towards the end 1970s and early 1980s the country suffered extensive economic decline and heavy financial crisis of which the major cause was said to be government’s poor economic policies and structural weaknesses (Wangwe et al, 1998).
To solve the problem, Tanzanian government approached IMF and the World Bank to seek loans and extend repayment period of both principal and interest. In return the country was compelled first to implement Structural Adjustment Program with the aim of stabilizing external and internal balance of payment, reduce fiscal deficits and promote export oriented production through devaluation, producer price changes, trade liberalization, privatization, and legal reform (Gibbon, 1993; 11). Other measures would include creation of conducive environment for foreign environment, abolish price controls and retrenchment. President Nyerere, rejected the program calling it “economic suicide” to the country. However, in 1986 there was no option, and the country opened the doors and signed agreement with IMF and World Bank to implement the Economic Recovery Program(s).
It is over two and a half decades since the economic recovery programs were implemented in Tanzania; the country’s economic situation did not improve much. While urban poverty is said to be decreasing, a great problem remains in the rural areas. The largest household survey ever conducted in Tanzania in 2000/2001, number of people living below basic need poverty line increased to 11.4million compared with 9.5million reported in 1990/1. Last years’ projections show the number has increased. As well privatization of public companies has substantially increased the unemployment rate, lowered wages, and increased the cost of goods and services and reduced access to the poor population in the country. For example, though 700,000 new job seekers join the labor market in Tanzania every year, only about 30,000 of them get employment. Today, privatization has increased the prices of fertilizer and other inputs, and reduced access to credit. While large scale farmers and private traders have benefited from liberalization and privatization, small farmers, who constitute the majority of Tanzania's population, have not enjoyed such benefits. Majority of people in the country have increasingly facing difficulties in accessing essential services, including water and sewerage, adequate shelter, electricity, education, health care and other basic services.
We cannot deny that lack of sound state backed policies especially on trade has brought some unusual effect to Tanzania. Internal productions and market of local goods and services has been suppressed due to large importation of cheap products from the developed countries. On the other side, it is important to ask ourselves, what could have been the country`s economic situation without the economic recovery programs? The country enjoys a higher degree of macroeconomic stability today as compared to the situation before 1986. Growth Domestic Product (GDP) growth per annum averaged 4.2 % in 1996, 6.7 in 2006 (http://www.imf.org/external/index.htm ) reversing the declined per capita income in the decade before. Again, despite setback in microeconomic policy during the first half of the 1990s the government achieved macroeconomic stability in the late 1990s. For example, inflation was reduced from about 30% in 1980 and early 1990 to 4.6% in 2002 when the fiscal imbalances were curbed by prudent fiscal management reducing government deficit below 13 percent of GDP. Acceleration of structural and institutional reforms as well as creation of new institutions led to improvement in the investment climate, increased foreign direct investment flow and job creation. The financial sector has been substantially transformed into highly diversified, competitive, and vibrant one. Whereas the financial sector was dominated by one publicly owned commercial bank and other few small financial units by the end of 1990’s, currently the sector comprises 22 private commercial banks of which 13 are foreign owned, 12 nonbank financial institutions, pension funds, 14 insurance companies, and more than 63 foreign exchange bureaus.
The balance of payments improved significantly, reflecting large donor inflow and increased export earnings from nontraditional exports mainly gold and diamond, gemstone and fish products. Overall gross foreign reserves rose from the equivalent of 1.6 months of export in 1995 to 6 months of export by December 2002. Tanzania is currently benefiting debt relief enhanced by Heavy Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) initiatives which has have paved the way for additional donor inflow and increased budget expenditure allocation to social and other priority sectors such as roads, judiciary and HIV/AIDS.
Conclusion
For better and quick results, I think: One the economic policies should be changed to reflect the Tanzanian environment. Currently, they are highly conventional in the sense that they focused and reflect the economic growth of their countries of origin and hence difficult to be applied in a different environment. Two, the poor and inefficient physical and financial infrastructure in the country should be reinstate. Third, restrictions in forms of high tariffs should be imposed on the imported goods in order to promote domestic production of manufactured goods and hence reduce inflation. And fourth, poor, incompetent and corrupt officials in both public and private sectors who have been not only are incapable of formulating and implementing development projects should be replaced.
References
Dan Rodrick, “Rethinking Growth Policies in Developing World” , Lecture given at Havard University in October, 2004.
Ferreira, M. L. 1996. “Poverty and Inequality during Structural Adjustment in Rural Tanzania;” Policy Research Working Paper 1641, World Bank, Washington, D.C
Gibbon, P., 1993. Social Change and Economic Reform in Africa, Scandinavian Institute of African Studies. Uppsala, Sweden
Samwel W, 1998, "The Impact of Structural Adjustment Program in Tanzania," A Paper Presented in Ethiopia.
http://www.dagliano.unimi.it/media/finalEnglishprograme.pdf
http://www.povertymonitoring.go.tz/documents/HBS_2000_contents_of_summary.pdf
1.0 Introduction
For decades, many poor countries of the world including Tanzania implemented a series of development reform policies mostly conditioned by International Financial Institutions (IMF and WB), with the aim of achieving economic growth and alleviate poverty. The emphasis of these policies changed over time depending on what economists believed to be the best course of action for the country(s) to achieve high and sustainable economic growth. Notwithstanding of all the efforts, Sub-Sahara African countries (including Tanzania) remains the poorest in the world. This paper therefore, discusses the impact of the growth policies by citing Tanzania’s experience. A major reference is made on Dan Roderick’s lecture at Havard University- “Rethinking Growth Policies in the Developing World”, 2004.
2.0 Summary of Rordick’s Lecture
In my understanding, I think the author is concerned with ongoing poor economic situation among poor countries particularly those in Sub-Saharan Africa despite decades of tying reforms policies in the pursuit of social, economic and political development. Without doubt, the founding pillar of these policies is the orthodox development thinking and theories; “stabilize, liberalize and privatize” of the advanced countries proposed as a cure for the economic destitution of the poor countries. Of all reforms trade liberalization has been pointed as the most striking policy as it required the developing countries to “eliminate restrictions on imported goods and services”. Despite the fact that many countries adopted the policies, only few succeeded. China, Vietnam and India for example, become successful through unorthodox means-by grafting market system on top of a planned system, underplayed private property rights, and opened trade to the world- in a highly protected trade regime with favors on special economic zones. He insists the importance of countries to protect their macro-economic activities, cautiously integrate into world trade, ensure effective property rights and maintain social cohesion, solidarity and political stability.
3.0 Tanzanias economic reform policy experience:
Soon after attained its independence in 1961, Tanzania nullified the role of market in the economy and backed socialistic political system with the state controlling everything. Towards the end 1970s and early 1980s the country suffered extensive economic decline and heavy financial crisis of which the major cause was said to be government’s poor economic policies and structural weaknesses (Wangwe et al, 1998).
To solve the problem, Tanzanian government approached IMF and the World Bank to seek loans and extend repayment period of both principal and interest. In return the country was compelled first to implement Structural Adjustment Program with the aim of stabilizing external and internal balance of payment, reduce fiscal deficits and promote export oriented production through devaluation, producer price changes, trade liberalization, privatization, and legal reform (Gibbon, 1993; 11). Other measures would include creation of conducive environment for foreign environment, abolish price controls and retrenchment. President Nyerere, rejected the program calling it “economic suicide” to the country. However, in 1986 there was no option, and the country opened the doors and signed agreement with IMF and World Bank to implement the Economic Recovery Program(s).
It is over two and a half decades since the economic recovery programs were implemented in Tanzania; the country’s economic situation did not improve much. While urban poverty is said to be decreasing, a great problem remains in the rural areas. The largest household survey ever conducted in Tanzania in 2000/2001, number of people living below basic need poverty line increased to 11.4million compared with 9.5million reported in 1990/1. Last years’ projections show the number has increased. As well privatization of public companies has substantially increased the unemployment rate, lowered wages, and increased the cost of goods and services and reduced access to the poor population in the country. For example, though 700,000 new job seekers join the labor market in Tanzania every year, only about 30,000 of them get employment. Today, privatization has increased the prices of fertilizer and other inputs, and reduced access to credit. While large scale farmers and private traders have benefited from liberalization and privatization, small farmers, who constitute the majority of Tanzania's population, have not enjoyed such benefits. Majority of people in the country have increasingly facing difficulties in accessing essential services, including water and sewerage, adequate shelter, electricity, education, health care and other basic services.
We cannot deny that lack of sound state backed policies especially on trade has brought some unusual effect to Tanzania. Internal productions and market of local goods and services has been suppressed due to large importation of cheap products from the developed countries. On the other side, it is important to ask ourselves, what could have been the country`s economic situation without the economic recovery programs? The country enjoys a higher degree of macroeconomic stability today as compared to the situation before 1986. Growth Domestic Product (GDP) growth per annum averaged 4.2 % in 1996, 6.7 in 2006 (http://www.imf.org/external/index.htm ) reversing the declined per capita income in the decade before. Again, despite setback in microeconomic policy during the first half of the 1990s the government achieved macroeconomic stability in the late 1990s. For example, inflation was reduced from about 30% in 1980 and early 1990 to 4.6% in 2002 when the fiscal imbalances were curbed by prudent fiscal management reducing government deficit below 13 percent of GDP. Acceleration of structural and institutional reforms as well as creation of new institutions led to improvement in the investment climate, increased foreign direct investment flow and job creation. The financial sector has been substantially transformed into highly diversified, competitive, and vibrant one. Whereas the financial sector was dominated by one publicly owned commercial bank and other few small financial units by the end of 1990’s, currently the sector comprises 22 private commercial banks of which 13 are foreign owned, 12 nonbank financial institutions, pension funds, 14 insurance companies, and more than 63 foreign exchange bureaus.
The balance of payments improved significantly, reflecting large donor inflow and increased export earnings from nontraditional exports mainly gold and diamond, gemstone and fish products. Overall gross foreign reserves rose from the equivalent of 1.6 months of export in 1995 to 6 months of export by December 2002. Tanzania is currently benefiting debt relief enhanced by Heavy Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) initiatives which has have paved the way for additional donor inflow and increased budget expenditure allocation to social and other priority sectors such as roads, judiciary and HIV/AIDS.
Conclusion
For better and quick results, I think: One the economic policies should be changed to reflect the Tanzanian environment. Currently, they are highly conventional in the sense that they focused and reflect the economic growth of their countries of origin and hence difficult to be applied in a different environment. Two, the poor and inefficient physical and financial infrastructure in the country should be reinstate. Third, restrictions in forms of high tariffs should be imposed on the imported goods in order to promote domestic production of manufactured goods and hence reduce inflation. And fourth, poor, incompetent and corrupt officials in both public and private sectors who have been not only are incapable of formulating and implementing development projects should be replaced.
References
Dan Rodrick, “Rethinking Growth Policies in Developing World” , Lecture given at Havard University in October, 2004.
Ferreira, M. L. 1996. “Poverty and Inequality during Structural Adjustment in Rural Tanzania;” Policy Research Working Paper 1641, World Bank, Washington, D.C
Gibbon, P., 1993. Social Change and Economic Reform in Africa, Scandinavian Institute of African Studies. Uppsala, Sweden
Samwel W, 1998, "The Impact of Structural Adjustment Program in Tanzania," A Paper Presented in Ethiopia.
http://www.dagliano.unimi.it/media/finalEnglishprograme.pdf
http://www.povertymonitoring.go.tz/documents/HBS_2000_contents_of_summary.pdf
"Rethinking Growth Policies in the Developing World:" Comments 4
By Le Hieu Trung (Vietnam)
For more than 15 years, the consensus of opinion on which economic policies could boost growth in developing countries is presented. At that time, there was several concepts and theories of reform policies for developing countries. As far as the concept of reform policies is concerned, it was divided into 2 different groups, one of which was the group of countries following broadly similar strategies. This group was known as sequential reform, which was opposed to simultaneous reform. “Big bang”, the name of this other group of countries, was non-dogmatic in their approach to economic reform. Those countries were pragmatic, experimental and proceeded in a flexible and instrumentalist way. Professor Dani Rodrik of F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, has written many articles and books on the areas of international economics, economic development, and political economy. In “Rethinking Growth Policies in the Developing countries”, Professor Rodrik wanted to evaluate the reason explaining the failure of some developing countries related to reform, while some other countries managed to reform well and achieved remarkable results. He stood on the idea of Washington Consensus that begun from some countries in North American, especially in Latin America and also from some countries in Asian and African, and compared with the other group to find out the more efficiency methodologies for reform policies.
Firstly, as mentioned in the article, nowadays, the Washington Consensus becomes very popular and is used constantly in government’s debated related to trade and development. It is often defined as synonymous with neo-liberalism and globalization. This concept focused mainly on trade liberalization and tax reform, As far as trade liberalization is concerned, it is the liberalization of inflows in foreign direct investment, privatization, and the insurance of property right. As the author mentioned in his article, the consensus does not perform as expected. The Latin America has to face with the low perspective of economic growth and it’s started to reach an even lower level than the period before the presence of the consensus. In order to solve this puzzle, Professor Rodik found the case of some other countries, where it started as under-developed countries. However, those countries applied the heterodox policies and they saw a growth rapidly over the same period. China, India and Vietnam could be the example for this case, where it had a high and sustainable economic growth from 1980. This growth is explained in this article as due to the main characteristics of those countries’ policies, which are developing based on market-oriented but somehow had their own unorthodox ways. Taking Vietnam as an example for a deeper review, liberalization of foreign trade and investment has been an important part of Vietnamese reform. The trade system was highly restricted through the mid-1980s. Reform has included dismantling of non-tariff barriers and tariff reductions. So it becomes more difficult to measure the effectiveness of trade policy reform. However, it could be based on the one good indicator, which is the volume of trade in constant prices relative to PPP GDP. This ratio increased from 0.08 in 1989 to 0.27 in 1997. Nowadays, world trade is closely related to foreign investment. Vietnam also liberalized its policies toward foreign investment. Flows of FDI averaged more than 5% of GDP in the second half of the 1990s, up from zero in the 1980s.
Secondly, the key to success of the group countries, which are using their own method to reform, is maintaining a stability for their macro-economic and an integration in the world economy. However, they still need to keep a good protection for their domestic products against import. On the other hand, they have to enhance a deeper and wider cooperation with the world trade regime. Another important point is the provision of effective protection to investors in terms of property rights and contract enforcement. Furthermore, they have to maintain a social cohesion, solidarity and political stability. Moreover, other reason for a positive result as explained by the author is the general principles of economic policy. In some countries like China and Vietnam, their policies often don’t approach directly and aren’t made specifically so the result could still be changed and cannot be foreseen. It means that there wasn’t a perfect concept of policies. This flexibility in policies could bring a successful result to those countries. In the reverse, Latin America with too rigid policies cannot afford to develop reflection policies like China and Vietnam. This reason explained the lack of success on Latin America’s economic growth.
Thirdly, from his own evaluation on the trend of reform policies in developing countries, Professor Rodrik stated two concepts that provide guidance to developing countries for further development. One is Augmented Washington Consensus and the second one is Diagnostic Approach to Growth Strategies. According to the author, the first concept is almost failed and for the second concept, he could see some more opportunities to become successful. While Augmented Washington Consensus focused on the correction and reparation of the issues presented in the original policies, the Diagnostic Approach to Growth Strategies aimed to provide new ideas by identifying the major problem or the bottleneck in the economic sphere at any point in time, and to only focus on solving this bottleneck. The concentration on detail purpose, as opposed to the focus on many targets, could be seen as the main advantage of the second concept.
In conclusion, “Rethinking Growth Policies in the Developing Countries” provides a comprehensive review of reform policies‘s methodologies in the world during the last decade. Moreover, throughout his article, the author evaluates the reform models based on some main respects of both theories and realities. However, until now, I believe that the reform model in China and Vietnam remains inadequate. Economic based on market-oriented also has some imperfections, which need to be considered. In the other hand, a rapid increase on Globalization somehow forces China and Vietnam to take part more deeply and widely in the global economic. Consequently, there are some issues that they have to face when subsidy and protectionism factor are replaced by an equally business environment. Furthermore, as author mentioned, the Washington Consensus was collapsed because of the unaffected of the theory, rigid and uniform disciplines, and the completely globalization. On another hand, the application of reform policies depend mostly on each country’s situation, as Professor Rodrik assumes that the presence of a perfect model, which could apply for all countries, is impossible. Nowadays, it becomes difficult to foreseen the trend of global economic, thus, the economist forecast and the reform models become narrow. So, the answer to the question of the necessity or not to their focus and their actual situation.
For more than 15 years, the consensus of opinion on which economic policies could boost growth in developing countries is presented. At that time, there was several concepts and theories of reform policies for developing countries. As far as the concept of reform policies is concerned, it was divided into 2 different groups, one of which was the group of countries following broadly similar strategies. This group was known as sequential reform, which was opposed to simultaneous reform. “Big bang”, the name of this other group of countries, was non-dogmatic in their approach to economic reform. Those countries were pragmatic, experimental and proceeded in a flexible and instrumentalist way. Professor Dani Rodrik of F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, has written many articles and books on the areas of international economics, economic development, and political economy. In “Rethinking Growth Policies in the Developing countries”, Professor Rodrik wanted to evaluate the reason explaining the failure of some developing countries related to reform, while some other countries managed to reform well and achieved remarkable results. He stood on the idea of Washington Consensus that begun from some countries in North American, especially in Latin America and also from some countries in Asian and African, and compared with the other group to find out the more efficiency methodologies for reform policies.
Firstly, as mentioned in the article, nowadays, the Washington Consensus becomes very popular and is used constantly in government’s debated related to trade and development. It is often defined as synonymous with neo-liberalism and globalization. This concept focused mainly on trade liberalization and tax reform, As far as trade liberalization is concerned, it is the liberalization of inflows in foreign direct investment, privatization, and the insurance of property right. As the author mentioned in his article, the consensus does not perform as expected. The Latin America has to face with the low perspective of economic growth and it’s started to reach an even lower level than the period before the presence of the consensus. In order to solve this puzzle, Professor Rodik found the case of some other countries, where it started as under-developed countries. However, those countries applied the heterodox policies and they saw a growth rapidly over the same period. China, India and Vietnam could be the example for this case, where it had a high and sustainable economic growth from 1980. This growth is explained in this article as due to the main characteristics of those countries’ policies, which are developing based on market-oriented but somehow had their own unorthodox ways. Taking Vietnam as an example for a deeper review, liberalization of foreign trade and investment has been an important part of Vietnamese reform. The trade system was highly restricted through the mid-1980s. Reform has included dismantling of non-tariff barriers and tariff reductions. So it becomes more difficult to measure the effectiveness of trade policy reform. However, it could be based on the one good indicator, which is the volume of trade in constant prices relative to PPP GDP. This ratio increased from 0.08 in 1989 to 0.27 in 1997. Nowadays, world trade is closely related to foreign investment. Vietnam also liberalized its policies toward foreign investment. Flows of FDI averaged more than 5% of GDP in the second half of the 1990s, up from zero in the 1980s.
Secondly, the key to success of the group countries, which are using their own method to reform, is maintaining a stability for their macro-economic and an integration in the world economy. However, they still need to keep a good protection for their domestic products against import. On the other hand, they have to enhance a deeper and wider cooperation with the world trade regime. Another important point is the provision of effective protection to investors in terms of property rights and contract enforcement. Furthermore, they have to maintain a social cohesion, solidarity and political stability. Moreover, other reason for a positive result as explained by the author is the general principles of economic policy. In some countries like China and Vietnam, their policies often don’t approach directly and aren’t made specifically so the result could still be changed and cannot be foreseen. It means that there wasn’t a perfect concept of policies. This flexibility in policies could bring a successful result to those countries. In the reverse, Latin America with too rigid policies cannot afford to develop reflection policies like China and Vietnam. This reason explained the lack of success on Latin America’s economic growth.
Thirdly, from his own evaluation on the trend of reform policies in developing countries, Professor Rodrik stated two concepts that provide guidance to developing countries for further development. One is Augmented Washington Consensus and the second one is Diagnostic Approach to Growth Strategies. According to the author, the first concept is almost failed and for the second concept, he could see some more opportunities to become successful. While Augmented Washington Consensus focused on the correction and reparation of the issues presented in the original policies, the Diagnostic Approach to Growth Strategies aimed to provide new ideas by identifying the major problem or the bottleneck in the economic sphere at any point in time, and to only focus on solving this bottleneck. The concentration on detail purpose, as opposed to the focus on many targets, could be seen as the main advantage of the second concept.
In conclusion, “Rethinking Growth Policies in the Developing Countries” provides a comprehensive review of reform policies‘s methodologies in the world during the last decade. Moreover, throughout his article, the author evaluates the reform models based on some main respects of both theories and realities. However, until now, I believe that the reform model in China and Vietnam remains inadequate. Economic based on market-oriented also has some imperfections, which need to be considered. In the other hand, a rapid increase on Globalization somehow forces China and Vietnam to take part more deeply and widely in the global economic. Consequently, there are some issues that they have to face when subsidy and protectionism factor are replaced by an equally business environment. Furthermore, as author mentioned, the Washington Consensus was collapsed because of the unaffected of the theory, rigid and uniform disciplines, and the completely globalization. On another hand, the application of reform policies depend mostly on each country’s situation, as Professor Rodrik assumes that the presence of a perfect model, which could apply for all countries, is impossible. Nowadays, it becomes difficult to foreseen the trend of global economic, thus, the economist forecast and the reform models become narrow. So, the answer to the question of the necessity or not to their focus and their actual situation.
Tuesday, July 14, 2009
"Rethinking Growth Policies in the Developing World:" Comments 3
By Magoti Suzanna Joachim (Tanzania)
1) INTRODUCTION
The article presents an account of different approaches on how developing countries can increase their growth rates and speed up the rate at which their citizens converge to the level of material well-being. The Author is also trying to provide an analysis on distinct approaches and reform by various economists of the 1980 and 1990 over the Economic Growth. Dan Rodrik also made an effort to offer some challenges, comparative analysis of The Augmented Washington Consensus Approach and Diagnosis Approaches to Growth Strategies and his own suggestion on what ca developing Countries do to speed up their Economic Growth.
2) SUMMARY OF THE ARTLCLE
a) The concept of Policy Reforms for Economic Growth gained momentum at the end of 1980-1990 by preaching the triple commandments which are stabilize, liberalize and privatize. This time marked the overwhelming of reforms around the World from Latin America to Sub-Sahara Africa Continent and in many places around Asia. In a relative short period, most developing countries unilaterally eliminated quantitative restrictions on imports, lowered tariff barriers and reduce the dispersion of tariff rates. According to this Article, It shows that despite of the adoption of these radical changes in policies, there was no analogous radical improvement in economic performance. Economic growth in those Countries that adopted the “stabilize, liberalize and privative” agenda has turned out to be low not only in absolute terms but also relative to other countries that were reluctant reformer and relative to the reforming countries’ own historical experience. Fiscal discipline, privatization and openness to trade have produced an economic performance that does not even begin to match the performance under import substitution.
b) The author is trying to provide his critical observation on why the reforms of the 1980s and 1990s have produced weak return in many developing countries by outlining two Approaches one is The Augmented Washington Consensus and two is A Diagnosis Approach to growth. According to this Article The Augmented Washington Consensus is impracticable because it does not take into account the amount of administrative capacity, human resource and political capital needed to complete the institution reform agenda, governments are overwhelmed with the range of things that need to be completed, copies of western legislation or “best practice” codes are adopted without much consideration of their suitability and adaptability and too little effort is made to render the reforms politically popular and ultimately sustainable.
c) He points out that, the trouble with the “do as much you can as quickly as you can approach as emphasized by the Augmented Washington Consensus is bad economics because the optimistic strategy may end up being targeted on areas of reform that are not particularly significant for economic growth at that point in time and may end up producing low economic returns. The vast majority of take-offs are not produced by significant economic reform and the vast majority of significant economic reform do not produce economic take-offs.
d) Furthermore, the author managed to analyze the diagnostic approach to growth strategies. He proposed that the biggest hit for the reform buck can be obtained by identifying the most significant bottleneck in the economy at any point in time, and focusing efforts on alleviating that bottlenecks. Thus, in order to deal with these bottlenecks we must be able to realize that if intermediation is problematic, there must be lack of competition among banks and/or high taxes on the financial system that are proportionate with the limits. And if labor skills are the constraints, it must show up in very high return to education, if taxes are significantly constraining private activity, the effective tax rate must be high, if corruption and other institution problems are dominant these should show up in cross-national survey evidence. If information or coordination externalities are rampant, there must be a shortage of new investment ideas and the policy setting needed to exploit new opportunities must be absent.
e) Therefore diagnostic approach clarifies why it is desirable to apply different fixes to different countries, match policy priorities with diagnostic signals, Find ways of identifying country specific solution and it is inherent bottom-up that it empowers countries to do their own diagnosis analyses. Diagnostic approach is sensitive to political and administrative constraints and it is dynamic in that it recognizes that the nature of the binding constraint changes over time.
3) RELEVANCE OF THE ARTICLE TO TANZANIAN SITUATIONS
i. The nature and content of economic reforms carried out in various countries in Africa and Tanzania in particular, have varied in terms of coverage and emphasis. However, the main elements of economic reform have been liberalization of internal and external trade, greater reliance on market forces (i.e. price liberalization, devaluations and interest rate adjustments), tight monetary policies, mainly in the form of credit squeezes, and tight fiscal policy in the form of budget cuts and public sector reforms. These policies have primarily been designed to restore equilibrium, especially in the balance of payments and the fiscal and monetary variables.
ii. The 1980s and 1990s was the moment in time in which Tanzanian government adopted several reforms as a response to economic crisis which was claimed to be a result of inappropriate domestic policies, including incentive structures, and the mismanagement of public resources (World Bank, 1981). In responding to the economic crisis, Tanzania government was forced as one of the IMF and World Bank condition to adopt Structural Adjustment Programmes. According to Husain (1994) it is indicated that for 1985-1990 the export volumes of nine major export commodities in countries which had undertaken Adjustment Programmes like Tanzania increased by 75 per cent as compared with the 1977-1979 averages. Yet export earnings from these exports had fallen by 40 per cent over the same period, because of deteriorating barter terms of trade.
iii. Some of the conditions embedded in Structural Adjustment Policy were Down-sizing Government structure for efficient human resource and effective service delivery, Introduction of Multi-party system for democratic government, Privatization of some of the public sectors such as Industries, mining sectors and hotels in order for improving performance and production. However, despite of the expected outcomes the return has been so slow and negative in some sectors. After all that beautiful plans and propagandas one was expecting rapid economic growth, Law inflation rate, Rapid reduced absolute poverty among the majority Tanzanian, and Increased employment and per capital income but this is not the case. It is almost 20 years since the adoption of structural and policy reforms but Tanzania is still lagging at the 3rd poorest country in Sub Saharan Africa despite of the richness in natural resources and tourist attractions.
iv. Never the less, since the inception of economic reforms in 1986, a large segment of Tanzania’s population has benefited from gradual poverty reduction, which was driven mostly by steady improvement in economic performance, implementation of structural reforms, and, in the most recent past, greater attention to public service delivery. GDP growth has been sufficient to allow increases in income per capita, including in rural areas. However the decline in poverty has been more pronounced in urban areas, while poverty in rural areas which employs more than 75 percent of the population, remains considerably higher. In conclusion therefore, one may argue that not every approach and reforms that have worked in the western countries can also be copied by developing countries to bring about economic growth in isolation of historical background, cultural and political condition and environment.
1) INTRODUCTION
The article presents an account of different approaches on how developing countries can increase their growth rates and speed up the rate at which their citizens converge to the level of material well-being. The Author is also trying to provide an analysis on distinct approaches and reform by various economists of the 1980 and 1990 over the Economic Growth. Dan Rodrik also made an effort to offer some challenges, comparative analysis of The Augmented Washington Consensus Approach and Diagnosis Approaches to Growth Strategies and his own suggestion on what ca developing Countries do to speed up their Economic Growth.
2) SUMMARY OF THE ARTLCLE
a) The concept of Policy Reforms for Economic Growth gained momentum at the end of 1980-1990 by preaching the triple commandments which are stabilize, liberalize and privatize. This time marked the overwhelming of reforms around the World from Latin America to Sub-Sahara Africa Continent and in many places around Asia. In a relative short period, most developing countries unilaterally eliminated quantitative restrictions on imports, lowered tariff barriers and reduce the dispersion of tariff rates. According to this Article, It shows that despite of the adoption of these radical changes in policies, there was no analogous radical improvement in economic performance. Economic growth in those Countries that adopted the “stabilize, liberalize and privative” agenda has turned out to be low not only in absolute terms but also relative to other countries that were reluctant reformer and relative to the reforming countries’ own historical experience. Fiscal discipline, privatization and openness to trade have produced an economic performance that does not even begin to match the performance under import substitution.
b) The author is trying to provide his critical observation on why the reforms of the 1980s and 1990s have produced weak return in many developing countries by outlining two Approaches one is The Augmented Washington Consensus and two is A Diagnosis Approach to growth. According to this Article The Augmented Washington Consensus is impracticable because it does not take into account the amount of administrative capacity, human resource and political capital needed to complete the institution reform agenda, governments are overwhelmed with the range of things that need to be completed, copies of western legislation or “best practice” codes are adopted without much consideration of their suitability and adaptability and too little effort is made to render the reforms politically popular and ultimately sustainable.
c) He points out that, the trouble with the “do as much you can as quickly as you can approach as emphasized by the Augmented Washington Consensus is bad economics because the optimistic strategy may end up being targeted on areas of reform that are not particularly significant for economic growth at that point in time and may end up producing low economic returns. The vast majority of take-offs are not produced by significant economic reform and the vast majority of significant economic reform do not produce economic take-offs.
d) Furthermore, the author managed to analyze the diagnostic approach to growth strategies. He proposed that the biggest hit for the reform buck can be obtained by identifying the most significant bottleneck in the economy at any point in time, and focusing efforts on alleviating that bottlenecks. Thus, in order to deal with these bottlenecks we must be able to realize that if intermediation is problematic, there must be lack of competition among banks and/or high taxes on the financial system that are proportionate with the limits. And if labor skills are the constraints, it must show up in very high return to education, if taxes are significantly constraining private activity, the effective tax rate must be high, if corruption and other institution problems are dominant these should show up in cross-national survey evidence. If information or coordination externalities are rampant, there must be a shortage of new investment ideas and the policy setting needed to exploit new opportunities must be absent.
e) Therefore diagnostic approach clarifies why it is desirable to apply different fixes to different countries, match policy priorities with diagnostic signals, Find ways of identifying country specific solution and it is inherent bottom-up that it empowers countries to do their own diagnosis analyses. Diagnostic approach is sensitive to political and administrative constraints and it is dynamic in that it recognizes that the nature of the binding constraint changes over time.
3) RELEVANCE OF THE ARTICLE TO TANZANIAN SITUATIONS
i. The nature and content of economic reforms carried out in various countries in Africa and Tanzania in particular, have varied in terms of coverage and emphasis. However, the main elements of economic reform have been liberalization of internal and external trade, greater reliance on market forces (i.e. price liberalization, devaluations and interest rate adjustments), tight monetary policies, mainly in the form of credit squeezes, and tight fiscal policy in the form of budget cuts and public sector reforms. These policies have primarily been designed to restore equilibrium, especially in the balance of payments and the fiscal and monetary variables.
ii. The 1980s and 1990s was the moment in time in which Tanzanian government adopted several reforms as a response to economic crisis which was claimed to be a result of inappropriate domestic policies, including incentive structures, and the mismanagement of public resources (World Bank, 1981). In responding to the economic crisis, Tanzania government was forced as one of the IMF and World Bank condition to adopt Structural Adjustment Programmes. According to Husain (1994) it is indicated that for 1985-1990 the export volumes of nine major export commodities in countries which had undertaken Adjustment Programmes like Tanzania increased by 75 per cent as compared with the 1977-1979 averages. Yet export earnings from these exports had fallen by 40 per cent over the same period, because of deteriorating barter terms of trade.
iii. Some of the conditions embedded in Structural Adjustment Policy were Down-sizing Government structure for efficient human resource and effective service delivery, Introduction of Multi-party system for democratic government, Privatization of some of the public sectors such as Industries, mining sectors and hotels in order for improving performance and production. However, despite of the expected outcomes the return has been so slow and negative in some sectors. After all that beautiful plans and propagandas one was expecting rapid economic growth, Law inflation rate, Rapid reduced absolute poverty among the majority Tanzanian, and Increased employment and per capital income but this is not the case. It is almost 20 years since the adoption of structural and policy reforms but Tanzania is still lagging at the 3rd poorest country in Sub Saharan Africa despite of the richness in natural resources and tourist attractions.
iv. Never the less, since the inception of economic reforms in 1986, a large segment of Tanzania’s population has benefited from gradual poverty reduction, which was driven mostly by steady improvement in economic performance, implementation of structural reforms, and, in the most recent past, greater attention to public service delivery. GDP growth has been sufficient to allow increases in income per capita, including in rural areas. However the decline in poverty has been more pronounced in urban areas, while poverty in rural areas which employs more than 75 percent of the population, remains considerably higher. In conclusion therefore, one may argue that not every approach and reforms that have worked in the western countries can also be copied by developing countries to bring about economic growth in isolation of historical background, cultural and political condition and environment.
Monday, July 13, 2009
"Rethinking Growth Policies in the Developing World": Comments 1
By Md. Abdur Rouf Mia (Bangladesh)
The article on ‘Rethinking Growth Policies in the Developing World’ by ‘Dani Rodrik’ basically criticized the policy agenda suggested by the ‘Washington Consensus’ as it failed to produce conceived economic growths in many developing countries (e.g., many African and Latin American Countries), which followed ten principles in the original ‘Washington Consensus’. Rather, he pointed out that the countries (e.g., China, India, and Vietnam) that followed heterodox policies have achieved significant economic growths in last two or three decades. In this context, in order to provide effective guidance to the developing countries for achieving economic growth, this paper evaluates the strengths and shortcomings of two potential approaches: (1) an extension of the Washington Consensus adding ten more principles, and (2) a diagnostic approach to growth strategies.
The Augmented Washington Consensus, in fact, adds several policy agenda (e.g., flexible labor markets, anti-corruption) to remedy the weaknesses in the implementation of the original ten principles (e.g., openness, fiscal discipline, and privatization) of the ‘Washington Consensus’. However, again Rodrik has suspected the efficacy of the long-listed reform agenda due to several issues. Firstly, the reform agenda does not provide any priority, and they are being suggested without much consideration of their adaptability to the local conditions. Moreover, efforts on many diverse issues may not attain the ultimate goal. On the other hand, implementing ‘the best as you can’ suggested by the proponents of the ‘Washington Consensus’ would induce opportunistic strategy, which may end up with unexpected results (e.g., low returns). Secondly, there is a possibility to augment the reform agenda in future in the case of failure by putting responsibility on the adopters’ shoulder for not conforming many of the long-listed principles.
Therefore, Rodrik suggests that instead of focusing on many reform agenda, it is rather important to recognize the most important bottleneck in the economy at any point of time, and put efforts on removing this constraint. He argues that this diagnostic approach is simple, operational, and economical. In the following sections, I intend to examine the applicability of the arguments of this paper in my country, Bangladesh.
Although the paper rightly pointed out the weaknesses of the ‘Washington Consensus’, promoting trade liberalization (a principle of the consensus) appears to bring about positive outcome in Bangladesh. In fact, several papers (CPD, 2004; Gisselquist and Grether, 2000; Osmani, 2005) argue that trade liberalization has positive outcomes in Bangladesh. CPD (2004) indicates that the large-scale liberalization of market and trade by increasing the easy availability of modern agricultural inputs have expanded the rural nonfarm sectors. In the same context, Gisselquist and Grether (2000) show that farmers in Bangladesh were benefited from increased availability of farm inputs through the process of liberalization. In an extensive study, Osmani (2005) argues that embracing globalization has stimulated aggregate demand from three sources: increased crop production, remittance, and growths in ready-made garments sector in Bangladesh, which eventually helped the poor to escape or come out of the poverty. In this context, the World Bank (2002) and several other studies (e.g., Nargis and Hossain, 2006) confirm noteworthy achievements in poverty reduction in both rural and urban areas in Bangladesh in the last two decades.
Nevertheless, the diagnostic approach, suggested by Rodrik, could be a better way to solve other existing micro and macro economic problems in Bangladesh. For example, the banking sector in Bangladesh has a huge amount of idle money amounting to nearly 150 billion, whereas agricultural farmers has to borrow money from non-governmental organizations (NGOs) or money lenders at relatively high interest rates. Moreover, investments in the manufacturing or services sectors are also relatively low among many South Asian Countries. These facts suggest that government should identify the bottlenecks in this regard and should take effective measures to best utilize those idle money. Similarly, Bangladesh is confronting many other significant economic and non-economic issues (e.g., meager FDI inflows, lack of export diversification, absence of rural industrialization, weak institutions). Identifying the main causes of these issues and addressing them pragmatically should be the priorities of the government. Finally, I do agree with the statement that careful policy analyses, carried out by the professionals/academicians in the respective fields, should replace the shortcuts or broad economic principles.
References:
Center for Policy Dialogue, 2004, Promoting Rural Nonfarm Economy: Is Bangladesh Doing enough? CPD Report No. 66, Dhaka: CPD.
Gisselquist, D. and Grether. J.M., 2000, "An Argument for Deregulating the Transfer of Agricultural Technologies to Developing Countries," World Bank Economic Review, 14(1), 111-27.
Nargis, N., & Hossain, M., 2006, "Income Dynamics and Pathways out of Poverty in Bangladesh: 1988-2004," Agricultural Economics, 35(3): 425-435.
Osmani, S.R. 2005, "The Impact of Globalization on Poverty in Bangladesh," Working Paper No. 65, Geneva: ILO.
The article on ‘Rethinking Growth Policies in the Developing World’ by ‘Dani Rodrik’ basically criticized the policy agenda suggested by the ‘Washington Consensus’ as it failed to produce conceived economic growths in many developing countries (e.g., many African and Latin American Countries), which followed ten principles in the original ‘Washington Consensus’. Rather, he pointed out that the countries (e.g., China, India, and Vietnam) that followed heterodox policies have achieved significant economic growths in last two or three decades. In this context, in order to provide effective guidance to the developing countries for achieving economic growth, this paper evaluates the strengths and shortcomings of two potential approaches: (1) an extension of the Washington Consensus adding ten more principles, and (2) a diagnostic approach to growth strategies.
The Augmented Washington Consensus, in fact, adds several policy agenda (e.g., flexible labor markets, anti-corruption) to remedy the weaknesses in the implementation of the original ten principles (e.g., openness, fiscal discipline, and privatization) of the ‘Washington Consensus’. However, again Rodrik has suspected the efficacy of the long-listed reform agenda due to several issues. Firstly, the reform agenda does not provide any priority, and they are being suggested without much consideration of their adaptability to the local conditions. Moreover, efforts on many diverse issues may not attain the ultimate goal. On the other hand, implementing ‘the best as you can’ suggested by the proponents of the ‘Washington Consensus’ would induce opportunistic strategy, which may end up with unexpected results (e.g., low returns). Secondly, there is a possibility to augment the reform agenda in future in the case of failure by putting responsibility on the adopters’ shoulder for not conforming many of the long-listed principles.
Therefore, Rodrik suggests that instead of focusing on many reform agenda, it is rather important to recognize the most important bottleneck in the economy at any point of time, and put efforts on removing this constraint. He argues that this diagnostic approach is simple, operational, and economical. In the following sections, I intend to examine the applicability of the arguments of this paper in my country, Bangladesh.
Although the paper rightly pointed out the weaknesses of the ‘Washington Consensus’, promoting trade liberalization (a principle of the consensus) appears to bring about positive outcome in Bangladesh. In fact, several papers (CPD, 2004; Gisselquist and Grether, 2000; Osmani, 2005) argue that trade liberalization has positive outcomes in Bangladesh. CPD (2004) indicates that the large-scale liberalization of market and trade by increasing the easy availability of modern agricultural inputs have expanded the rural nonfarm sectors. In the same context, Gisselquist and Grether (2000) show that farmers in Bangladesh were benefited from increased availability of farm inputs through the process of liberalization. In an extensive study, Osmani (2005) argues that embracing globalization has stimulated aggregate demand from three sources: increased crop production, remittance, and growths in ready-made garments sector in Bangladesh, which eventually helped the poor to escape or come out of the poverty. In this context, the World Bank (2002) and several other studies (e.g., Nargis and Hossain, 2006) confirm noteworthy achievements in poverty reduction in both rural and urban areas in Bangladesh in the last two decades.
Nevertheless, the diagnostic approach, suggested by Rodrik, could be a better way to solve other existing micro and macro economic problems in Bangladesh. For example, the banking sector in Bangladesh has a huge amount of idle money amounting to nearly 150 billion, whereas agricultural farmers has to borrow money from non-governmental organizations (NGOs) or money lenders at relatively high interest rates. Moreover, investments in the manufacturing or services sectors are also relatively low among many South Asian Countries. These facts suggest that government should identify the bottlenecks in this regard and should take effective measures to best utilize those idle money. Similarly, Bangladesh is confronting many other significant economic and non-economic issues (e.g., meager FDI inflows, lack of export diversification, absence of rural industrialization, weak institutions). Identifying the main causes of these issues and addressing them pragmatically should be the priorities of the government. Finally, I do agree with the statement that careful policy analyses, carried out by the professionals/academicians in the respective fields, should replace the shortcuts or broad economic principles.
References:
Center for Policy Dialogue, 2004, Promoting Rural Nonfarm Economy: Is Bangladesh Doing enough? CPD Report No. 66, Dhaka: CPD.
Gisselquist, D. and Grether. J.M., 2000, "An Argument for Deregulating the Transfer of Agricultural Technologies to Developing Countries," World Bank Economic Review, 14(1), 111-27.
Nargis, N., & Hossain, M., 2006, "Income Dynamics and Pathways out of Poverty in Bangladesh: 1988-2004," Agricultural Economics, 35(3): 425-435.
Osmani, S.R. 2005, "The Impact of Globalization on Poverty in Bangladesh," Working Paper No. 65, Geneva: ILO.
Dani Rodrik's "Rethinking Growth Policies in the Developing World"
Dani Rodrik, a professor at Harvard University, is well-known for his innovative and provocative thoughts pertaining to neo-classical approaches to growth policies in the developing countries. In "Rethinking Growth Policies in the Developing Countries," he highlights the flaws and weakness of a common set of policy prescriptions propounded by many economists in the West.
This paper was read by my students at the Graduate School of Governance Studies, Meiji University. The students are government officers from several developing countries. They are on their study leaves, in pursuing a Master's degree. Their comments, which are based on their career experiences, are indeed quite consistent with Professor Rodrik's critics. Their comments will be posted in this blog.
This paper was read by my students at the Graduate School of Governance Studies, Meiji University. The students are government officers from several developing countries. They are on their study leaves, in pursuing a Master's degree. Their comments, which are based on their career experiences, are indeed quite consistent with Professor Rodrik's critics. Their comments will be posted in this blog.
Friday, July 10, 2009
Aids to Navigation Fund
On July 7, 2009, Mr. Yohei Sasakawa, Chairman of the Nippon Foundation, pledged USD 2.5 millions to the "Aids to Navigation Fund" for the purpose of enhancing the safety, security and marine environment navigation and protection for Melaka and Singapore Straits. The Nippon Foundation, which is the largest private foundation in Japan, has been contributing to improving the safety of navigation in Melaka and Singapore straits for more than three decades.
The fundamental concept of the "Aids to Navigation Fund" is to encourage the "users-pay principle" in the Melaka and Singapore straits. Unlike air and land traffics, sea navigation is free of charge. For this reason, shipping business communities in the world have been free riders in sea. As a result, that behavior has created enormous burden to littoral countries in maintaining navigation safety.
After more than three and half decades of financial assistance for keeping safety of navigation in Melaka and Singapore straits, Mr. Yohei Sasakawa hopes that the inception of the "Aids to Navigation Fund" will become a model for international shipping business communities to adhering to the "users-pay principle" in sea navigations.
The fundamental concept of the "Aids to Navigation Fund" is to encourage the "users-pay principle" in the Melaka and Singapore straits. Unlike air and land traffics, sea navigation is free of charge. For this reason, shipping business communities in the world have been free riders in sea. As a result, that behavior has created enormous burden to littoral countries in maintaining navigation safety.
After more than three and half decades of financial assistance for keeping safety of navigation in Melaka and Singapore straits, Mr. Yohei Sasakawa hopes that the inception of the "Aids to Navigation Fund" will become a model for international shipping business communities to adhering to the "users-pay principle" in sea navigations.
Meeting Malaysia's Prime Minister
Met Malaysia's Prime Minister Dato' Sri Najib Razak at his office at Putrajaya on July 6, 2009.
Sunday, June 07, 2009
グルジア
5月26日はグルジアの独立記念日であった。イヴァネ・マチヴァリア大使の招待を受けて在日グルジア大使館主催のパーティに出席した。
グルジアは1918年5月26日に帝政ロシアの崩壊に伴って共和国として独立した。1921年から91年に至って旧ソ連の一部であった。国土面積は約7万平方キロメートル、人口規模は約440万人である。当国は日本との経済関係は薄く、日本人はグルジアに関する知識は凡そ次ぎの通りである。
スターリンの生誕国、バラ革命（03年11月）、ロシアからの虐め（08年8月に分離独立を目指そうとする南オセチアに対して武力制圧したところ、ロシアから軍事介入）、そして日本で活躍されているグルジアの力士である黒海太（幕内）、栃ノ心（幕内）、臥牙丸（幕下）。
5月26日グルジア人の力士3人共、祖国独立記念日に駆け付けた。それを機会にパーティに出席した私は黒海太と栃ノ心と記念写真を撮らせて貰った。
グルジアは1918年5月26日に帝政ロシアの崩壊に伴って共和国として独立した。1921年から91年に至って旧ソ連の一部であった。国土面積は約7万平方キロメートル、人口規模は約440万人である。当国は日本との経済関係は薄く、日本人はグルジアに関する知識は凡そ次ぎの通りである。
スターリンの生誕国、バラ革命（03年11月）、ロシアからの虐め（08年8月に分離独立を目指そうとする南オセチアに対して武力制圧したところ、ロシアから軍事介入）、そして日本で活躍されているグルジアの力士である黒海太（幕内）、栃ノ心（幕内）、臥牙丸（幕下）。
5月26日グルジア人の力士3人共、祖国独立記念日に駆け付けた。それを機会にパーティに出席した私は黒海太と栃ノ心と記念写真を撮らせて貰った。
Thursday, June 04, 2009
六四天安門事件20周年に思うこと
本日は、89年6月4日に中国の指導者が天安門広場で中国共産党の腐敗や経済改革の格差是正、そして民主化を求める一般市民のデモ集団に対して無差別発砲による弾圧事件が20周年を迎えた。この事件の死傷者の数は未だに正確に分かっていないが、数百人～数千人のレンジであったと言われている。より深刻なことにデモしていた一般市民に対する武力弾圧の真相、ならびに政治的責任については20年が経っても明らかにされないままにある。それはいわゆる極少数の老百姓の命を換えて、13億人以上の人口を抱えている中国の安定を守る「共産党王朝」の論理を徹してきたからである。
天安門事件以来、中国の経済は目覚しい成長が続いてきた。89年現在の一人あたりGDPは700米ドル以下であったのに対して、今日それが既に3,000ドルを超え、20年間に４倍の増となった。確かにこの驚異な成長過程に13億人の老百姓の生活は豊かになった。この成果について、「共産党王朝」は自慢するのみならず、とりわけ天安門事件の武力弾圧を正当化にする最良の材料としている。
しかしながら、中国は目覚しい経済成長の裏に多岐に渡る深刻な問題を抱えている。具体的には、東西と南北の問題は依然として続いており、さらに昨年より発覚するようになった有害食料品問題、そして２桁の成長率の実現に深刻化する環境問題が挙げられる。また、米国に端を発した世界経済危機によって中国の経済成長スピードは減速している中、失業者の数は増加しつつある。中でも、年間に600万人以上の大卒者（日本の労働力人口の１割に相当）を吸収する力が弱ってきた。これらの問題は「共産党王朝」の存続に最も大きいな脅威の一つであるとしばしば指摘されている。
ところで、過去60年に東アジア諸国は開発独裁主義によって経済発展を遂げてきた。整理すれば、東アジア地域では３つの開発独裁主義の形態があろう。第一に、軍事政権によるグループであり、韓国、台湾、タイ、インドネシアはその代表であった。第二に、長期的な民主政権が主導する開発独裁のグループであり、日本、マレーシア、シンガポールはそれに該当する。第三に、中国とベトナムに代表される共産党の一党政権というグループである。第一と第二の二つのグループから、経済発展レベル（通常、一人当たりGDPのレベル）は、民主化の深化と正の相関関係、そして政治の国民経済への介入度合いと負の相関関係があるという二つの傾向が見られる。この考察を第３グループに当てはめれば、ひょっとして、中国も近い将来、政治体制の多元性が促進され、同時に国民経済への介入度合いが減るという時代が到来するかもしれない。
だとすれば、中国では老百姓は民主化が実現するのを静かに期待することがセカンドベストの選択であろう。この場合、「共産党王朝」の崩壊に繋ぐか、または「共産党」を中心にした多党制の政治体制になるか、という二つのシナリオが考えられる。いずれのケースも、20年前に天安門広場で民主化を求めようとした人達の希望であると思う。
六四天安門事件の犠牲者に対して敬意を表し、黙祷。
天安門事件以来、中国の経済は目覚しい成長が続いてきた。89年現在の一人あたりGDPは700米ドル以下であったのに対して、今日それが既に3,000ドルを超え、20年間に４倍の増となった。確かにこの驚異な成長過程に13億人の老百姓の生活は豊かになった。この成果について、「共産党王朝」は自慢するのみならず、とりわけ天安門事件の武力弾圧を正当化にする最良の材料としている。
しかしながら、中国は目覚しい経済成長の裏に多岐に渡る深刻な問題を抱えている。具体的には、東西と南北の問題は依然として続いており、さらに昨年より発覚するようになった有害食料品問題、そして２桁の成長率の実現に深刻化する環境問題が挙げられる。また、米国に端を発した世界経済危機によって中国の経済成長スピードは減速している中、失業者の数は増加しつつある。中でも、年間に600万人以上の大卒者（日本の労働力人口の１割に相当）を吸収する力が弱ってきた。これらの問題は「共産党王朝」の存続に最も大きいな脅威の一つであるとしばしば指摘されている。
ところで、過去60年に東アジア諸国は開発独裁主義によって経済発展を遂げてきた。整理すれば、東アジア地域では３つの開発独裁主義の形態があろう。第一に、軍事政権によるグループであり、韓国、台湾、タイ、インドネシアはその代表であった。第二に、長期的な民主政権が主導する開発独裁のグループであり、日本、マレーシア、シンガポールはそれに該当する。第三に、中国とベトナムに代表される共産党の一党政権というグループである。第一と第二の二つのグループから、経済発展レベル（通常、一人当たりGDPのレベル）は、民主化の深化と正の相関関係、そして政治の国民経済への介入度合いと負の相関関係があるという二つの傾向が見られる。この考察を第３グループに当てはめれば、ひょっとして、中国も近い将来、政治体制の多元性が促進され、同時に国民経済への介入度合いが減るという時代が到来するかもしれない。
だとすれば、中国では老百姓は民主化が実現するのを静かに期待することがセカンドベストの選択であろう。この場合、「共産党王朝」の崩壊に繋ぐか、または「共産党」を中心にした多党制の政治体制になるか、という二つのシナリオが考えられる。いずれのケースも、20年前に天安門広場で民主化を求めようとした人達の希望であると思う。
六四天安門事件の犠牲者に対して敬意を表し、黙祷。
Wednesday, June 03, 2009
日本のインテリジェス能力
ここ数日マスメディアの報道をフォローしていたところ、彼らはインテリジェンス能力が欠けていることを改めて痛感した。二つの例を紹介しよう。
まず、先週末にイギリスで行われた「英国のスター発掘番組（Britain's Got Talent)」に対して、日本の某テレビ局は48歳のスーザン・ボイル女史を本命としたが、当てが外れた。この結果は要するに馬券のはずれと同じである。しかしながら、6月1日の当該テレビ局のワイドショーに、スーザン・ボイルの優勝を見込んで番組を組んでしまった関係で、優勝した「タンス・ユニット」というグループに関して殆ど紹介するネタの用意がなかった。こうした中で、当番組の解説者は一所懸命に準優勝になったスーザン・ボイルにスポットを当てることを繰り広げた羽目となった。このようなアプリオリに徹した番組制作の結果、視聴者は番組の本命が外れた時、優勝者や他の参加者について知ることができない状態となった。
二番目の例は金正日の後継に関する報道である。多くのメディアはこれまで長男の金正男（キムジョンナン）が本命の後継者としてきたように思う。しかしながら、最近、韓国等の外国情報源をもとに、三男の金正雲（キムジョンウ）が後継に指名されたことを受けて、日本のメディアは、これからならず者国・北朝鮮の偉大な指導者になる正体を把握する事が出来ないでいる状態にある。
高度情報化となっている今の世の中はインテリジェンス能力が求められているにも係らず、以上紹介した二つの例から拡大解釈すれば、日本においてはそのキャパシティが欠如している。仮に、事柄や事実（facts）をデータとすれば、類似しているデータを整理したものは情報となり、それをもとに理論や知的に処理と吟味を経たものはインテリジェンスであると定義すれば、日本のインテリジェンス能力は「情報」の区分にしか達していないと評価するほかない。
まず、先週末にイギリスで行われた「英国のスター発掘番組（Britain's Got Talent)」に対して、日本の某テレビ局は48歳のスーザン・ボイル女史を本命としたが、当てが外れた。この結果は要するに馬券のはずれと同じである。しかしながら、6月1日の当該テレビ局のワイドショーに、スーザン・ボイルの優勝を見込んで番組を組んでしまった関係で、優勝した「タンス・ユニット」というグループに関して殆ど紹介するネタの用意がなかった。こうした中で、当番組の解説者は一所懸命に準優勝になったスーザン・ボイルにスポットを当てることを繰り広げた羽目となった。このようなアプリオリに徹した番組制作の結果、視聴者は番組の本命が外れた時、優勝者や他の参加者について知ることができない状態となった。
二番目の例は金正日の後継に関する報道である。多くのメディアはこれまで長男の金正男（キムジョンナン）が本命の後継者としてきたように思う。しかしながら、最近、韓国等の外国情報源をもとに、三男の金正雲（キムジョンウ）が後継に指名されたことを受けて、日本のメディアは、これからならず者国・北朝鮮の偉大な指導者になる正体を把握する事が出来ないでいる状態にある。
高度情報化となっている今の世の中はインテリジェンス能力が求められているにも係らず、以上紹介した二つの例から拡大解釈すれば、日本においてはそのキャパシティが欠如している。仮に、事柄や事実（facts）をデータとすれば、類似しているデータを整理したものは情報となり、それをもとに理論や知的に処理と吟味を経たものはインテリジェンスであると定義すれば、日本のインテリジェンス能力は「情報」の区分にしか達していないと評価するほかない。
Monday, June 01, 2009
タバコ税
案外、タバコを吸う人々はその消費に対して支払っている税金の詳細について把握していない。一体タバコの消費に伴い、税金がいくらかかっているのか。
財務省によれば、20本の紙巻きタバコは300円であれば、消費税を除いたタバコは約285円となる。そこからタバコ税は国タバコ税の71.04円、地方タバコ税の87.44円（道都府県タバコ税21.04円、市区町村タバコ税65.96円）、そしてタバコ特別税の16.40円から構成される。
年間約3,500万人の喫煙者が居り、09年度のタバコ税の収入は約1.8兆円と見込まれている。タバコの消費から得られる税収規模は大きいか小さいか別にして、その税金がどのように使われているかについて愛煙家には知らされていないと思われる。徴収されたタバコ税は実に喫煙者に還元されておらず（喫煙者のための施設を作ったりとか）、むしろ「一般財源」として位置づけられ、言ってみれば、政府にとって何も使ってもよい資金とされている。タバコの税収は通常国民の福祉や文化活動を促進する施設、公害・環境問題対策等の支出に充当される。
タバコ特別税は98年に施行され、タバコ1本当たり5.5％の税金が「国鉄清算事業団」および「国有林野と区別会計」の債務の返還に充当されている。09年度では約1,600億円のタバコ特別税が見込まれている。明らかに愛煙家は国の債務返済に貢献している。
喫煙者はタバコを吸うため、納税する義務が生じているが、昨今の世の中においては喫煙する権利が段々奪われているので、喫煙者の肩身が狭くなってきたように思う。旧国鉄の債務返済にタバコの特別税が充当されているにもかかわらず、4月1日よりJRの首都圏の駅は全面的に禁煙となり、愛煙家の一人としてJRの対応は如何なものかと思う。
財務省によれば、20本の紙巻きタバコは300円であれば、消費税を除いたタバコは約285円となる。そこからタバコ税は国タバコ税の71.04円、地方タバコ税の87.44円（道都府県タバコ税21.04円、市区町村タバコ税65.96円）、そしてタバコ特別税の16.40円から構成される。
年間約3,500万人の喫煙者が居り、09年度のタバコ税の収入は約1.8兆円と見込まれている。タバコの消費から得られる税収規模は大きいか小さいか別にして、その税金がどのように使われているかについて愛煙家には知らされていないと思われる。徴収されたタバコ税は実に喫煙者に還元されておらず（喫煙者のための施設を作ったりとか）、むしろ「一般財源」として位置づけられ、言ってみれば、政府にとって何も使ってもよい資金とされている。タバコの税収は通常国民の福祉や文化活動を促進する施設、公害・環境問題対策等の支出に充当される。
タバコ特別税は98年に施行され、タバコ1本当たり5.5％の税金が「国鉄清算事業団」および「国有林野と区別会計」の債務の返還に充当されている。09年度では約1,600億円のタバコ特別税が見込まれている。明らかに愛煙家は国の債務返済に貢献している。
喫煙者はタバコを吸うため、納税する義務が生じているが、昨今の世の中においては喫煙する権利が段々奪われているので、喫煙者の肩身が狭くなってきたように思う。旧国鉄の債務返済にタバコの特別税が充当されているにもかかわらず、4月1日よりJRの首都圏の駅は全面的に禁煙となり、愛煙家の一人としてJRの対応は如何なものかと思う。
Wednesday, May 27, 2009
内閣府の「月例経済報告」は大本営発表となったか！？
最新のGDP速報（１次速報）は2009年1〜3月期は実質GDPが前期比4％減となり、年率に換算すれば15.2％減となった。それは戦後最悪のGDP 成長率となり、米国のサブプリム問題とあまり縁がなかった日本経済は、他の先進国と比べれば、世界経済危機による打撃が極めて大きい。
こうした状況の中で、内閣府は5月25日に「5月の月例経済報告」を発表した。当報告は「景気は、厳しい状況にあるものの、このところ悪化のテンポが穏やかになっている。。。。。」という景気基調の判断を示している。新聞各社の報道によれは、この景気基調判断は3年3か月ぶりに上方修正をしたものであるとのこと。正に明るいニューズである。
この上方修正の景気基調判断の材料は「平成20年度の補正予算の効果」、「輸出が下げ止まりつつある」、「生産が下げ止まりつつある」によるものが大きいと理解しよう。また、内閣府の「輸出下げ止まりつつある」の根拠は中国の景気刺激策効果の見られ、それによって、輸出関連企業の「生産が下げ止まりつつある」にあると思われる。
しかしながら、実態はそうなのか。第一に「平成20年度の補正予算」、そして「平成21年度の第一補正予算」の効果に関してエコノミストの間でも評価が異なっている。第二に中国の経済成長に対する過大評価という懸念である。
中国の経済成長率、とりわけ、世界経済危機への対応のために打ち出した景気対策による持ち直しの実態はおそらく中国当局（中央と地方）のみ知っている。ロンドン『エコノミスト』週刊誌の5月23〜29日号は、中国政府、いやより正確的にいえば、中国共産党は内情と国際社会に対する思惑（特に対米）の裡に当国のGDP統計を操作していると指摘している（p. 32、p. 72）。実に、中国のエネルギー局は26日に2009年上半期の中国全国の電力消費量が前年同期に比べて減少する見通しを示した（5月27日、日経朝刊の報道）。
だとすれば、内閣府は今後の輸出、そして生産に対する期待が外れかねない。あるいは、もっと厄介なことに、内閣府は諸外国の経済状況や中国の統計数字の信憑性を吟味せず、与党・政府の衆院選挙対策の一環のため、「月例経済報告」は総合経済対策の効果が上向いているのを宣伝する「大本営発表」の手段となってしまう恐れがある。
こうした状況の中で、内閣府は5月25日に「5月の月例経済報告」を発表した。当報告は「景気は、厳しい状況にあるものの、このところ悪化のテンポが穏やかになっている。。。。。」という景気基調の判断を示している。新聞各社の報道によれは、この景気基調判断は3年3か月ぶりに上方修正をしたものであるとのこと。正に明るいニューズである。
この上方修正の景気基調判断の材料は「平成20年度の補正予算の効果」、「輸出が下げ止まりつつある」、「生産が下げ止まりつつある」によるものが大きいと理解しよう。また、内閣府の「輸出下げ止まりつつある」の根拠は中国の景気刺激策効果の見られ、それによって、輸出関連企業の「生産が下げ止まりつつある」にあると思われる。
しかしながら、実態はそうなのか。第一に「平成20年度の補正予算」、そして「平成21年度の第一補正予算」の効果に関してエコノミストの間でも評価が異なっている。第二に中国の経済成長に対する過大評価という懸念である。
中国の経済成長率、とりわけ、世界経済危機への対応のために打ち出した景気対策による持ち直しの実態はおそらく中国当局（中央と地方）のみ知っている。ロンドン『エコノミスト』週刊誌の5月23〜29日号は、中国政府、いやより正確的にいえば、中国共産党は内情と国際社会に対する思惑（特に対米）の裡に当国のGDP統計を操作していると指摘している（p. 32、p. 72）。実に、中国のエネルギー局は26日に2009年上半期の中国全国の電力消費量が前年同期に比べて減少する見通しを示した（5月27日、日経朝刊の報道）。
だとすれば、内閣府は今後の輸出、そして生産に対する期待が外れかねない。あるいは、もっと厄介なことに、内閣府は諸外国の経済状況や中国の統計数字の信憑性を吟味せず、与党・政府の衆院選挙対策の一環のため、「月例経済報告」は総合経済対策の効果が上向いているのを宣伝する「大本営発表」の手段となってしまう恐れがある。
Tuesday, April 21, 2009
低額給付金の雑感
先日、麻生内閣の目玉景気対策としての定額給付金受取の案内を届いた。12,000円の給付なので、使途も既に決まっている。一日も早く入金してもらいたいという気持ちで、申請書を記入しようとしたところ、受取人、ならびに振込みの銀行口座を確認できる書類のコピーを申請書の所定の欄に貼り付けなければならない。挙句の果てに、駅前のセブン・イレブンで運転免許書と銀行のキャッシュカードのコピーを取り、申請書に貼り付けて投函した。
この申請書を用意するのに30分以上の時間がかかり、機会費用を考慮に入れれば、受け取る賞味の金額は10,000円以下となるのではないかと。優秀な役人はなぜこのような手間がかかる給付金交付のやり方を選んだのか、を理解に苦しむ次第である。交付手続きを民間企業に委託すれば、もっと簡単に済ませると同時に、この不況に職を失った人々に対してバイトの機会を提供することにもなりうるのではないか。
役人のやり方は景気の刺激に寄与するよ、と言う人もいるだろう（たとえば、セブン・イレブンでコピーを取ることがコピー代の消費が増加し、製紙業界やコピーのドナー製作する業界などに波及効果を及ぶ、等）。
この申請書を用意するのに30分以上の時間がかかり、機会費用を考慮に入れれば、受け取る賞味の金額は10,000円以下となるのではないかと。優秀な役人はなぜこのような手間がかかる給付金交付のやり方を選んだのか、を理解に苦しむ次第である。交付手続きを民間企業に委託すれば、もっと簡単に済ませると同時に、この不況に職を失った人々に対してバイトの機会を提供することにもなりうるのではないか。
役人のやり方は景気の刺激に寄与するよ、と言う人もいるだろう（たとえば、セブン・イレブンでコピーを取ることがコピー代の消費が増加し、製紙業界やコピーのドナー製作する業界などに波及効果を及ぶ、等）。
Sunday, December 28, 2008
Did Japan Steal Taiwan from China?
Susan L. Shirk in her book on China: Fragile Superpower (2007, Oxford University Press) asserts that: "Japan stole Taiwan from the Qing government in 1895. Under the CCP, China defeated Japan in World War II, and Taiwan should have been returned to China then. But the United States intervened with the Sixth Fleet during the Korea War to keep Taiwan permanently from China."
Susan Shirk--a scholar on China affairs at Stanford University--is a stereotypical pro-CCP scholar with conscending attitude in pleasing CCP's leaders. She interpreted the sovereignty right on Taiwan to suit the People Repulic of China (PRC). Her claim is false because it discards the historical evidence that the Qing government had agreed upon the permanent cession of Taiwan to Japanese government under the Treaty of Shimonoseki signed at the end of the First Sino-Japanese War in April 1895. Thus, Japan did not steal Taiwan from China.
Furthermore, it was the Republic of China (ROC)--in allying with CCP, and thus not CCP alone--that defeated Japan in World War II. ROC was later defeated by CCP in 1949, after 4 years of civil war in mainland China. Consequently, the ROC government (led by Guomingdang) occupied Taiwan. Japan accepted the Potsdam Declaration--signed by Harry S. Truman, Winston Churchill and Chiang Kai-Sek on July 26, 1945--on August 14, 1945. Since then, Japan abandoned Taiwan, and its sovereignty right has been, and still is being claimed by the ROC.
Susan Shirk--a scholar on China affairs at Stanford University--is a stereotypical pro-CCP scholar with conscending attitude in pleasing CCP's leaders. She interpreted the sovereignty right on Taiwan to suit the People Repulic of China (PRC). Her claim is false because it discards the historical evidence that the Qing government had agreed upon the permanent cession of Taiwan to Japanese government under the Treaty of Shimonoseki signed at the end of the First Sino-Japanese War in April 1895. Thus, Japan did not steal Taiwan from China.
Furthermore, it was the Republic of China (ROC)--in allying with CCP, and thus not CCP alone--that defeated Japan in World War II. ROC was later defeated by CCP in 1949, after 4 years of civil war in mainland China. Consequently, the ROC government (led by Guomingdang) occupied Taiwan. Japan accepted the Potsdam Declaration--signed by Harry S. Truman, Winston Churchill and Chiang Kai-Sek on July 26, 1945--on August 14, 1945. Since then, Japan abandoned Taiwan, and its sovereignty right has been, and still is being claimed by the ROC.
Saturday, December 27, 2008
麻生首相：センスのなさ
世界経済危機でソニーなどを代表する日本の製造業が従来の慣習から比べれば、かなり大規模な人員削減を行っている。こうした情勢の中で、26日の総務省発表によれば、11月の失業率は3.9%に悪化した。さらに同日に厚生労働省は有効求人倍率が0.76に低下したと発表した。この二つの指標から日本経済は既に不況に入ったと言って良い。外需依存から離脱できない日本の経済が少なくとも向こう12〜18ヶ月に亘って景気循環が好転することが期待できず、専門家の指摘を待たなくても、今後は雇用失業情勢がさらに悪化することが明らかである。
こうした深刻な状況の中で、麻生首相は19日に渋谷のハローワークを突然に訪れ、求職の相談を求めてきた若者に対して、「やりたいことを絞り込まないといけない。かっこいい方は給料が安くて、しんどい仕事が実入りはでかい」とアドバイスしたようである（読売新聞、12月20日朝刊、p.4）。これは一見素晴らしいアドバイスのように見受けられるが、実は全く的を外れていると言わざるを得ない。求職する人々にとっては「かっこいい仕事とか、しんどい仕事とか、給料が高い仕事とか」が選べないのは今日本経済の厳しい現実である。彼らはとにかく仕事があれば飛び込みたいと簡単に想像できるはず。
どうも麻生総理の常識は世の中の非常識になっていると思って仕方がない。こんなに庶民レベルの実態を把握するセンスを持っていない政治家を国のリーダーとして選んだのは誰の責任だろう。答えは明らかである、自民党だ。
声がかけられた若者は「やりたいことは総理の秘書官ですとか、自民党の職員だとか」のように敢えて答えてくれれば、麻生首相はどう反応しただろう。実に惜しかった。
こうした深刻な状況の中で、麻生首相は19日に渋谷のハローワークを突然に訪れ、求職の相談を求めてきた若者に対して、「やりたいことを絞り込まないといけない。かっこいい方は給料が安くて、しんどい仕事が実入りはでかい」とアドバイスしたようである（読売新聞、12月20日朝刊、p.4）。これは一見素晴らしいアドバイスのように見受けられるが、実は全く的を外れていると言わざるを得ない。求職する人々にとっては「かっこいい仕事とか、しんどい仕事とか、給料が高い仕事とか」が選べないのは今日本経済の厳しい現実である。彼らはとにかく仕事があれば飛び込みたいと簡単に想像できるはず。
どうも麻生総理の常識は世の中の非常識になっていると思って仕方がない。こんなに庶民レベルの実態を把握するセンスを持っていない政治家を国のリーダーとして選んだのは誰の責任だろう。答えは明らかである、自民党だ。
声がかけられた若者は「やりたいことは総理の秘書官ですとか、自民党の職員だとか」のように敢えて答えてくれれば、麻生首相はどう反応しただろう。実に惜しかった。
Tuesday, December 02, 2008
アフリカの開発
11月20日のBBC報道によれば、韓国財閥である大宇（Daewoo)がマダガスカルで100万エーカー（400平方キロ）の農地借地権を99年間獲得し、今後年500万トンのトウモロコシを栽培して韓国へ逆輸入するビジネスモデルを確立しようとしている。この大宇モデルは、依然として一人当たりの所得が一日２ドル以下である7億人の人口を抱えているサブサハラ地域において適応可能であれば、当該地域の貧困撲滅に最も必要とされる雇用と所得の誘発に貢献できると考えられる。しかしながら、このモデルは労働集約的なものの代わりに資本集約的になれば、雇用と所得の誘発効果が期待できないという懸念もある（つまり、資本財は労働力を代替して雇用誘発効果がミニマムとなる）。
この考察に関して、入山映博士（前笹川平和財団理事長、前笹川アフリカ協会副理事長）から以下のコメントが寄せられた。
「MDGとかTICADとか、途上国、就中アフリカについてODAの投入によって貧困からの脱出が可能になると誤解させるような論調が珍しくはない。これがとんでもない錯覚であることは明らかだ。世界中のODAを合算してみても１０兆円なのだから、こんな桁の数字で１０億人を超えるアフリカの人口が救われる訳がないのは算数の世界だ。だから、市場との連携、もっとはっきりいえば先進国からの現地投資、それによる現地産業の成立がなくては貧困からの脱出などは夢のまた夢である。現地産業の成立のためには比較優位を持つ安価な労働力の創出は大前提で、そのためにも、かつて日本がそうであったような媼農業生産性の向上による余剰農業人口の第二次産業への入は必須の前提条件になる。内発的開発とか、ボトムアップの開発と言った口当たりの良いキャッチフレーズは、それとして意味がないとは言わないが、この冷厳な事実を認識していなくては何も始まらないというべきだろう。
その意味で、大宇のマダガスカルプロジェクトは望ましい方向に向けての開発努力であることは認められても良い。しかし、二つの留保条件が直ちに念頭に浮かぶ。第一はいうまでもなく他のアフリカ諸国、特にサブサハラ諸国への適用可能性だ。灌漑農業を前提とする限り、先行するインフラ投資がなされなければ汎用性はごく低いと言わねばならぬ。第二はこれが現地農業労働力の生産性向上にどれほど意味があるのかが不明な点だ。メイズはアフリカの主食食物であるのは事実だから、たとえ輸出志向であれ、作物選定に問題はないが、この点はなお検討される余地がる。もちろん付加価値生産性を現地において高める可能性はいくらもかんがえられるから、第一の点とは異なり、このプロジェクトの意味を減殺するものとはいえないだろう。
いづれにせよ、魚を与えるよりは魚の釣り方を教える、という古典的な開発哲学からしても、好ましい方向への一歩であることは認められてよいだろう。なりふり構わず天然資源確保のために資金をばらまいている中国のやり方よりは、はるかに優れたものであり、この延長線上にいくつかの発想が生まれるならば、あるいは記念すべきプロジェクトになるかもしれない。特に、これまで類似の農産品輸出プロジェクトが、製品の品質管理や納期などの点で頓挫した例を反面教師にすれば、大きな意味を持ち得ると評価しても良いものと思われる。」
この考察に関して、入山映博士（前笹川平和財団理事長、前笹川アフリカ協会副理事長）から以下のコメントが寄せられた。
「MDGとかTICADとか、途上国、就中アフリカについてODAの投入によって貧困からの脱出が可能になると誤解させるような論調が珍しくはない。これがとんでもない錯覚であることは明らかだ。世界中のODAを合算してみても１０兆円なのだから、こんな桁の数字で１０億人を超えるアフリカの人口が救われる訳がないのは算数の世界だ。だから、市場との連携、もっとはっきりいえば先進国からの現地投資、それによる現地産業の成立がなくては貧困からの脱出などは夢のまた夢である。現地産業の成立のためには比較優位を持つ安価な労働力の創出は大前提で、そのためにも、かつて日本がそうであったような媼農業生産性の向上による余剰農業人口の第二次産業への入は必須の前提条件になる。内発的開発とか、ボトムアップの開発と言った口当たりの良いキャッチフレーズは、それとして意味がないとは言わないが、この冷厳な事実を認識していなくては何も始まらないというべきだろう。
その意味で、大宇のマダガスカルプロジェクトは望ましい方向に向けての開発努力であることは認められても良い。しかし、二つの留保条件が直ちに念頭に浮かぶ。第一はいうまでもなく他のアフリカ諸国、特にサブサハラ諸国への適用可能性だ。灌漑農業を前提とする限り、先行するインフラ投資がなされなければ汎用性はごく低いと言わねばならぬ。第二はこれが現地農業労働力の生産性向上にどれほど意味があるのかが不明な点だ。メイズはアフリカの主食食物であるのは事実だから、たとえ輸出志向であれ、作物選定に問題はないが、この点はなお検討される余地がる。もちろん付加価値生産性を現地において高める可能性はいくらもかんがえられるから、第一の点とは異なり、このプロジェクトの意味を減殺するものとはいえないだろう。
いづれにせよ、魚を与えるよりは魚の釣り方を教える、という古典的な開発哲学からしても、好ましい方向への一歩であることは認められてよいだろう。なりふり構わず天然資源確保のために資金をばらまいている中国のやり方よりは、はるかに優れたものであり、この延長線上にいくつかの発想が生まれるならば、あるいは記念すべきプロジェクトになるかもしれない。特に、これまで類似の農産品輸出プロジェクトが、製品の品質管理や納期などの点で頓挫した例を反面教師にすれば、大きな意味を持ち得ると評価しても良いものと思われる。」
Thursday, November 27, 2008
中小企業支援
大学の同僚、佐久間裕秋教授に次の質問をした。「政府・与党は中小企業の資金繰り保証支援額を20兆円に拡大を打ち出し、第二次補正予算に盛り組むことに決定した。この対策 をより効果的に実現させるために、ミクロ経済レベル、そして地方レベルにおいて具体的にどのような政策の手当が考えられるか」。
以下の回答が寄せられた。
１）株式をはじめ投信、ファンドなど金融商品の下落が止まらない。レバレッジやオプションがらみのデリバティブ商品に手を出した投資家はさらに甚大な損失が発生している。多額の評価損を抱え赤字決算を余儀なくされた金融機関は、自己資本の低下を回避すべく資産圧縮に走った。貸し剥がしが横行し、結果として余波を被ったのが中小零細企業である。
２）貸出しの円滑化を図るには、自己資本の拡充が対策の王道ではあるが、市況悪化が進む中での新規の資本調達は容易ではない。こうした状況下においては、資産査定基準の緩和や時価会計の部分的適用停止などの緊急避難措置も已むを得まい。
３）建設、不動産をはじめとする相次ぐ大型倒産や原材料価格の高騰、急激な円高などに伴う景気後退など実体経済の急速な悪化も、一層の中小企業の経営環境の悪化を招いた。信用保証協会による保証枠拡大は、足元の資金繰り改善に一定の即効対策として期待できる半面、全部保証による斡旋銀行のモラルハザードは避けられない。兆円単位の代位弁済負担が発生した過去の反省はどう生かされるのだろうか。
４）自治体の制度融資窓口は年末の資金繰りに窮した地域の中小零細企業の駆込み寺と化している。小口の制度融資の一層の枠拡大を行ったとしても、信用収縮の大波の前ではその効果には限界がある。事態の改善には、当面の資金繰りを繋ぐ対症療法や景気を下支えするマクロ景気対策に加え、資産劣化により機能不全に陥った中小金融向け金融システム正常化のための方策が不可欠である。
Wednesday, October 22, 2008
Sunset Thinking
Do you ever watch the sunsetAnd just sit and think about things
Just you and the sky and darkness
Giving your thoughts some wings
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for full version
Just you and the sky and darkness
Giving your thoughts some wings
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for full version
read Marilyn Lott
Monday, October 13, 2008
自社株買い
日本の株安は続いている。10月3日にあったTOPIXと日経平均はそれぞれ1,047.97、10,938.14から10月10日の取引終了時点に840.86、8,276.43へと下がった。当期間中に東証とジャスダックを合わした時価総額は352兆円から282.3兆円へと減少し、約１週間の取引期間に69.7兆円が市場から消えてしまったのである。こうした深刻な状況を背景に、麻生総理は10日に世界的な株安の連鎖によって株価が下げ止まらない日本の株価への対策として、自社株買いの規制の一部を年末に撤廃することを表明した。
この対策は果たして効果があるかどうかを考えてみたい。
まず、株価の形成に関する基礎を見よう。株の価値は企業が作り出そうとする将来の収益の割引現在価値で決まるのを理解しなければならない。つまり、企業の将来利益はチャッシュフローで決まり、それは株主に対して配当金として、それを市場金利で割り引いて現在価値形で配分される。ここで企業業績は株価の形成に重要な要素であり、また、注意すべきは株の価値が一期先もしくはそれ以上の期間における将来の配当ないし利益で定まるものであって、過去の利益によるものではない点である。
次に、企業の収益は株価形成に影響を及ぼすことから、株の価値は、１）企業の将来収益の予想、２）その予想収益の上下、３）予想収益と異なる実績、と言った情報によって左右されることになる。基本的に、それらの事柄から株価が変動（つまり、株価が上がったり、下がったり）するのである。これらの情報をもとに人々は株の売り買いを行っているわけである。
したがって、麻生総理の自社株買いという対策は日本の株価の続落を歯止めさせると同時に、株価の持ち直しに対する効果が極めて低いという結論になる。また、以下述べる理由から日本の経済現況は自社株買いが株価の上昇をもたらすことが困難である。
自社株買いの狙いは、企業が自らの余分の資金を使って株式市場から自社株を買って株の価値を高めさせ、それによって株主価値の向上をもたらすことである。それは市場で流通している株の数を減少させることによって実現されるものである。さらに、企業の利益が増えた場合、または、前期の収益とあまり変わらない場合でも、流通されている株の数がさえ減れば、一株当たりの収益率が高くなり、その結果、株主価値が高まることになる。こうした因果関係で自社株買いを通じて株価が上がり、株主にとっては喜ばれるのである。
しかしながら、明らかに企業は自らの資金をもたなければ自社株買いを実施することができない。企業の自社株買いの資金は利益によって左右される。今起きている株価の急落はアメリカのサブプリマム問題を端に端した世界金融危機の状況から実物経済に影響を及ぼしている。国際経済の相互依存が高まってきた中で、今後の日本企業の予想業績ないし予想利益は下向きになり、いつ、どういう環境によって底打ちになるのかが見定まらない状況はしばらく続きそうである。こうした状況から、日本企業は自らの資金を活用して自社株買いによって株の価値を高めることが難しいと指摘せざるを得ない。
したがって結論として麻生総理の自社株買いの効果はあまり期待することができない。既に一段と悪化した経済状況を対応するために、やはり10日にこのブログで主張した内需拡大による景気対策に必要な２次補正予算を早急に導入するほかない。また、その一環として、企業が自ら保有している資金は自社株買いを使うよりも、設備投資に向けた方が自らの将来利益の改善に繋がり、結果として株価が上がることに貢献するのである。
この対策は果たして効果があるかどうかを考えてみたい。
まず、株価の形成に関する基礎を見よう。株の価値は企業が作り出そうとする将来の収益の割引現在価値で決まるのを理解しなければならない。つまり、企業の将来利益はチャッシュフローで決まり、それは株主に対して配当金として、それを市場金利で割り引いて現在価値形で配分される。ここで企業業績は株価の形成に重要な要素であり、また、注意すべきは株の価値が一期先もしくはそれ以上の期間における将来の配当ないし利益で定まるものであって、過去の利益によるものではない点である。
次に、企業の収益は株価形成に影響を及ぼすことから、株の価値は、１）企業の将来収益の予想、２）その予想収益の上下、３）予想収益と異なる実績、と言った情報によって左右されることになる。基本的に、それらの事柄から株価が変動（つまり、株価が上がったり、下がったり）するのである。これらの情報をもとに人々は株の売り買いを行っているわけである。
したがって、麻生総理の自社株買いという対策は日本の株価の続落を歯止めさせると同時に、株価の持ち直しに対する効果が極めて低いという結論になる。また、以下述べる理由から日本の経済現況は自社株買いが株価の上昇をもたらすことが困難である。
自社株買いの狙いは、企業が自らの余分の資金を使って株式市場から自社株を買って株の価値を高めさせ、それによって株主価値の向上をもたらすことである。それは市場で流通している株の数を減少させることによって実現されるものである。さらに、企業の利益が増えた場合、または、前期の収益とあまり変わらない場合でも、流通されている株の数がさえ減れば、一株当たりの収益率が高くなり、その結果、株主価値が高まることになる。こうした因果関係で自社株買いを通じて株価が上がり、株主にとっては喜ばれるのである。
しかしながら、明らかに企業は自らの資金をもたなければ自社株買いを実施することができない。企業の自社株買いの資金は利益によって左右される。今起きている株価の急落はアメリカのサブプリマム問題を端に端した世界金融危機の状況から実物経済に影響を及ぼしている。国際経済の相互依存が高まってきた中で、今後の日本企業の予想業績ないし予想利益は下向きになり、いつ、どういう環境によって底打ちになるのかが見定まらない状況はしばらく続きそうである。こうした状況から、日本企業は自らの資金を活用して自社株買いによって株の価値を高めることが難しいと指摘せざるを得ない。
したがって結論として麻生総理の自社株買いの効果はあまり期待することができない。既に一段と悪化した経済状況を対応するために、やはり10日にこのブログで主張した内需拡大による景気対策に必要な２次補正予算を早急に導入するほかない。また、その一環として、企業が自ら保有している資金は自社株買いを使うよりも、設備投資に向けた方が自らの将来利益の改善に繋がり、結果として株価が上がることに貢献するのである。
Sunday, October 12, 2008
Ikebana
Ikebana is an art for traditional Japanese flower arrangements. There are many schools of ikebana in Japan. Photos below are ikebana from Ryusei-ha School, which was founded in Tokyo by Master Yoshimura Kaun in 1886.
Friday, October 10, 2008
選挙と景気対策
昨日、政府は速やかに第２次補正予算を導入しなければならないとこのブログ（９日）に書き込んだ後、麻生首相が実物経済において急速に悪化してきた景気に対する追加対策の策定を指示したというニューズが伝わってきた。同然の対応である。
が、他方、ジャーナリストや評論家の多くは追加経済対策の財源とか、追加政策案の国会審議の日程によって国会の早期解散が出来なくなるのではないとかなどのような後ろ向きの論調ばかりである。全く耳障りである。
確かに２年間弱の間に国民の信任を得ないままに３人の首相が交代してきたのは憲法に定められる衆院選を早期に実施した方が国のためになる。しかしながら、来年９月までに衆院を解散しなくいことも憲法に保証されていることも事実である。これは議会内閣制の原則である。また、追加経済対策の財源に関しては既に750兆円の借金にさらに加担することになり、2010年のプライマリバランスの達成を逃れることになり、高齢化になった日本経済における国民の財政負担がさらに大きくなると指摘されている。
でも、経済状況が悪くなれば財政赤字が良くなるはずがない。当たり前のことです。したがって今の不景気をどう対応するか、そのために赤字国債の発行もやむを得ない。でなければ、国民の生活が悪化する一方、依然として財政赤字が改善する兆しも見えない。
こうした状況下で、弁証法的に目下の景気浮揚の対策と政権政党を選ぶ衆院選の実施をセットで行えば一石二鳥になる。そのために、早急に衆院を解散し、各政党（現実に自民党と民主党という２大政党が焦点）は総合経済対策ならびに今後の経済見通しと長期的な視点に立脚したこの国のあり方を政策論点にしたマニフェストを掲げ、11月初旬でも選挙を実施してもらいたい。
このような選択をしなければ、麻生総理はスピード感のある景気浮揚対策を実施してもらわなければ、比較的に世界金融危機から遮断されている日本経済は一段と悪化され、国民は寒い年末と新年を迎えるに違いない。
が、他方、ジャーナリストや評論家の多くは追加経済対策の財源とか、追加政策案の国会審議の日程によって国会の早期解散が出来なくなるのではないとかなどのような後ろ向きの論調ばかりである。全く耳障りである。
確かに２年間弱の間に国民の信任を得ないままに３人の首相が交代してきたのは憲法に定められる衆院選を早期に実施した方が国のためになる。しかしながら、来年９月までに衆院を解散しなくいことも憲法に保証されていることも事実である。これは議会内閣制の原則である。また、追加経済対策の財源に関しては既に750兆円の借金にさらに加担することになり、2010年のプライマリバランスの達成を逃れることになり、高齢化になった日本経済における国民の財政負担がさらに大きくなると指摘されている。
でも、経済状況が悪くなれば財政赤字が良くなるはずがない。当たり前のことです。したがって今の不景気をどう対応するか、そのために赤字国債の発行もやむを得ない。でなければ、国民の生活が悪化する一方、依然として財政赤字が改善する兆しも見えない。
こうした状況下で、弁証法的に目下の景気浮揚の対策と政権政党を選ぶ衆院選の実施をセットで行えば一石二鳥になる。そのために、早急に衆院を解散し、各政党（現実に自民党と民主党という２大政党が焦点）は総合経済対策ならびに今後の経済見通しと長期的な視点に立脚したこの国のあり方を政策論点にしたマニフェストを掲げ、11月初旬でも選挙を実施してもらいたい。
このような選択をしなければ、麻生総理はスピード感のある景気浮揚対策を実施してもらわなければ、比較的に世界金融危機から遮断されている日本経済は一段と悪化され、国民は寒い年末と新年を迎えるに違いない。
Thursday, October 09, 2008
政府の総合経済対策
2008年の補正予算案が８日に衆院で通過し、これから参院で審議が行われ、当補正予算案は民主党の賛成が取り付けらており、16日に参院で成立すると見込まれている。当補正予算案は福田康夫前首相が８月末にまとめたものであり、主に中小企業向け融資の資金、燃料高騰の対応、後期高齢者医療費などへの財源手当てである。
予算案がまとめられてから既に６週間以上が経ち、その間、臨時国会の開催期間、福田康夫前首相の辞任、それに伴う自民党総裁選、そして麻生首相の選出に至っている間に、アメリカに端を発したグローバル規模の金融危機が10月に入って一段と深刻化され、金融市場の混迷が続いており、しばらくその沈静化が極めて困難であろう。この金融危機は国際経済の大恐慌を引き起しかねないと指摘されている。こうした外部環境が激変しているにもかかわらず、政府・与党が提出した補正予算案の内容は8末以前の経済状況をしか反映しておらず、補正予算の日本経済全般に与える即効性が疑われると言わざるを得ない。
極端にいえば、国会議員（衆参両方）は製造業の生産ラインを携わっている労働者の行動に例えられる。なぜならば、一度まとめた予算案は状況変化が生じても、それの国会承認を最優先にしているからである。新しい首相になった麻生氏はリーダーシップを発揮し、現実の経済状況、そして半年後の経済見通しを吟味して対応分野や予算の規模の見直しをも含めて補正予算案の修正を手掛けても良いはずである。
麻生首相は一段深刻化になってきた国際金融危機がもたらす実物経済や国民生活の影響を対応するために、追加補正予算の編成を行い、次の通常国会に提出すると報道されている。しかしながら、これは今の政局から予想すれば、この追加補正予算の執行は来年の２月になる。国内経済において日々の生活にますます厳しくなってきた国民にとって余裕のある年末と新年を迎えられるかどうかが懸念である。
また、いまの金融危機においては外需の力が激減している中、日本は内需拡大が政策の重点にする他ない。この焦点に関しては反対する人が少ないと思われるが、問題は内需拡大を牽引していく対策の中身である。それについては公明党が提案している定率減税（４兆円）、そして中小企業への融資のさらなる拡充、国民の住宅環境の向上を目的にした不動産・建設部門への支援、ガソリン税に係わる暫定税率の廃止、CO2排出削減に繋がる投資・補助などなど、つまり、民間最終消費の拡大、新築住宅や設備投資の奨励を通じた内需拡大といった対策は大切である。また、これらの経済対策を迅速にまとめ、次の通常国会を待たずに、この臨時国会で成立することが大事である。そのプロセスにおける国会議員の速やかな対応を期待したい。
予算案がまとめられてから既に６週間以上が経ち、その間、臨時国会の開催期間、福田康夫前首相の辞任、それに伴う自民党総裁選、そして麻生首相の選出に至っている間に、アメリカに端を発したグローバル規模の金融危機が10月に入って一段と深刻化され、金融市場の混迷が続いており、しばらくその沈静化が極めて困難であろう。この金融危機は国際経済の大恐慌を引き起しかねないと指摘されている。こうした外部環境が激変しているにもかかわらず、政府・与党が提出した補正予算案の内容は8末以前の経済状況をしか反映しておらず、補正予算の日本経済全般に与える即効性が疑われると言わざるを得ない。
極端にいえば、国会議員（衆参両方）は製造業の生産ラインを携わっている労働者の行動に例えられる。なぜならば、一度まとめた予算案は状況変化が生じても、それの国会承認を最優先にしているからである。新しい首相になった麻生氏はリーダーシップを発揮し、現実の経済状況、そして半年後の経済見通しを吟味して対応分野や予算の規模の見直しをも含めて補正予算案の修正を手掛けても良いはずである。
麻生首相は一段深刻化になってきた国際金融危機がもたらす実物経済や国民生活の影響を対応するために、追加補正予算の編成を行い、次の通常国会に提出すると報道されている。しかしながら、これは今の政局から予想すれば、この追加補正予算の執行は来年の２月になる。国内経済において日々の生活にますます厳しくなってきた国民にとって余裕のある年末と新年を迎えられるかどうかが懸念である。
また、いまの金融危機においては外需の力が激減している中、日本は内需拡大が政策の重点にする他ない。この焦点に関しては反対する人が少ないと思われるが、問題は内需拡大を牽引していく対策の中身である。それについては公明党が提案している定率減税（４兆円）、そして中小企業への融資のさらなる拡充、国民の住宅環境の向上を目的にした不動産・建設部門への支援、ガソリン税に係わる暫定税率の廃止、CO2排出削減に繋がる投資・補助などなど、つまり、民間最終消費の拡大、新築住宅や設備投資の奨励を通じた内需拡大といった対策は大切である。また、これらの経済対策を迅速にまとめ、次の通常国会を待たずに、この臨時国会で成立することが大事である。そのプロセスにおける国会議員の速やかな対応を期待したい。
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